瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260122

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The spot freight rate was affected by the cancellation of full - scale tax refunds for photovoltaic products and the seasonal demand of Christmas. The geopolitical situation might improve, and the freight rate declined significantly. The freight rate market was generally greatly influenced by seasonal demand. It was recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closed at 1137.7, up 6.6; EC sub - main contract closed at 1399.1, up 31.8. The spread between EC2604 - EC2606 was - 261.4, down 13.1; the spread between EC2604 - EC2608 was - 360.7, down 4.3. The EC contract basis was 816.49, down 8 [1] - The main contract EC2604 of the container shipping index (European line) futures rose 0.58%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 3% [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1954.19, down 2.1 points from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. SCFI (composite index) was 1574.12, down 0.04; SCFIS (US West line) was 1305.27, down 73.27 [1] - CCFI (composite index) was 1209.85, up 14.96; CCFI (European line) was 1582.60, up 14.85. The 1803.00 index was down 74.00, and the Panama - type freight index was 1606.00, down 36.00 [1] - The average charter price of Panamax ships was 0.00, up 0.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 22377.00, up 791.00 [1] - The spot freight rate in the fourth week was between 2600 - 3200 US dollars for a large container. Maersk's large container price in the fourth - week opening was 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week [1] 3.3 Industry News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development said that during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts would be made to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, focusing on building "good houses" and constructing a new real estate development model, and promoting the spot - sale system of commercial housing [1] - US President Trump reached an agreement framework with NATO Secretary - General Rutter on the Greenland issue and would not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1 [1] - Russian President Putin met with US President's special envoy Witkov on January 22. He believed that the US - Denmark issue on Greenland had nothing to do with Russia and that the two countries would reach an agreement. Russia was willing to pay 1 billion US dollars from the frozen assets in the US to join the "Peace Committee" [1] - Starting from April 1, 2026, all listed photovoltaic products would no longer enjoy VAT export tax - refund incentives, which might lead to a rush of shipments and boost long - term contract cargo volume, but weaken the support on the spot side [1] - China's manufacturing PMI data in December showed a slight recovery, in line with seasonal rules. The new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand boosted by Christmas [1] - Zelensky said that the negotiations with the US and Europe had reached a new level, and there was hope to end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, and the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation had improved [1] - Eurozone inflationary pressure eased, weakening the market's expectation of the European Central Bank raising interest rates before the end of the year. The Eurozone CPI in December returned to the medium - term target set by the ECB [1] 3.4 Upcoming Data Release Schedule - Japan's December core CPI annual rate on January 23 at 07:30 - UK's December seasonally - adjusted retail sales month - on - month rate on January 23 at 15:00 - France's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 16:15 - Germany's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 16:30 - Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 17:00 - UK's January manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 17:30 - US's January S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value on January 23 at 22:45 [1]