合成橡胶产业日报-20260122

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,600 in the short term. Short - term semi - steel tire production in some enterprises will remain at a high level due to foreign trade orders, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. All - steel tire enterprises still have device production control to control inventory. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises will change little in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 355 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 96,682, with a week - on - week increase of 2,956. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 8,120 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 105 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 65.24 US dollars/ton, the CFR price of butadiene in China is 710 US dollars/ton, the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with an increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with a week - on - week increase of 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.56 days [2] Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of January 22, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.32% [2]