瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - ICE cotton futures fell on Wednesday due to concerns about the global economy and geopolitical instability, and the market awaited demand signals. The ICE March cotton futures contract settled down 0.04 cents, or 0.06%, at 64.30 cents per pound. - In the domestic market, the national cotton commercial inventory is rising, and market supply is relatively sufficient. Brazilian cotton is arriving in large quantities, further increasing the inventory. - On the downstream demand side, the price of high - count yarn is firm, but overall market demand is weak. However, driven by cost, yarn prices remain stable, and the rebound in China's textile and clothing export growth in December still supports the market. - On the market, supported by stocking demand, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net positions were - 152,789 lots, up 3,158 lots; main contract cotton positions were 799,956 lots, up 12,765 lots; cotton warehouse receipts were 9,944 lots, up 301 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,500 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions were - 1,850 lots, down 189 lots; main contract cotton yarn positions were 15,805 lots, down 1,156 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 59 lots, down 11 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 21,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,514 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 13,684 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 21,066 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) arrival price was 22,555 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,481 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the national industrial cotton inventory was 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume was 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume was 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. - Imported cotton profit was 2,135 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days were 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days were 32.34 days, up 0.37 days. - Cloth output was 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output was 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount was 12,275,733 thousand US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility was 12.11%, up 0.12%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility was 12.12%, up 0.16%. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility was 14.16%, down 0.02%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility was 9.1%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - Cotton textile enterprises' cotton industrial inventory was increasing steadily and was at a high level compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December, the in - stock cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 983,800 tons, up 44,200 tons from the end of last month. - Brazil's new cotton sowing continued. As of the week of January 17, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 36.3%, slower than last year but faster than the five - year average, 7.9 percentage points higher than the five - year average. [2]