Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core View - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the southern part of Thailand is in the peak production period. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation. The overall inventory accumulation rate has little change compared to the previous period. Overseas shipments arriving at the port are mainly African rubber. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased compared to the previous period. The inventory accumulation rate of general trade has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to continue to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly compared to the previous week. In the short term, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall device production schedule is expected to remain stable. The all - steel tire enterprises still have the phenomenon of controlling production to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,550 - 13,250 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,735 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,115 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 183,011 lots, up 1,899 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 60,827 lots, down 1,231 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 48,754 lots, down 1,397 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,599 lots, up 204 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 55,339 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,890 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,885 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 250 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 945 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,163 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 428 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 59.49 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 57.2 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.3%, up 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.13%, up 0.08 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.57%, up 0.89 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.58%, up 0.91 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260122
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-22 09:22