瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260122

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage where supply is stable and demand remains cautious, with the inventory destocking rate slowing down. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly bullish and volatile manner, paying attention to trading rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 168,780 yuan/ton, up 2,040 yuan from the previous day. The net position of the top 20 was -154,648 lots, up 876 lots [2] - The trading volume of the main contract was 436,686 lots, up 8,758 lots from the previous day. The spread between near - and far - month contracts was -2,280 yuan/ton, down 620 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts were 28,886 lots/ton, up 230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 164,500 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan from the previous day. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 161,000 yuan/ton, up 6,000 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -4,280 yuan/ton, up 3,960 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,855 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars from the previous day [2] - The average price of amblygonite was 17,350 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan from the previous day. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 6,963 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons. The monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of lithium carbonate was 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh [2] - The price of lithium manganate was 45,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 147,500 yuan/ton, down 6,500 yuan [2] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide was 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 197,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China was 195,500 yuan/ton [2] - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 180,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The price of lithium iron phosphate was 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 60%, down 3 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,718,000 units, down 162,000 units. The monthly sales volume was 1,710,000 units, down 113,000 units [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 47.94%, up 0.45 percentage points. The cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase were 16,490,000 units, up 3,624,000 units [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000 units, unchanged. The cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase were 2,615,000 units, up 1,331,000 units [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 82.54%, down 0.85 percentage points. The 40 - day average volatility was 65.79%, down 0.71 percentage points [2] - The total call position was 109,916 contracts, down 1,293 contracts. The total put position was 155,908 contracts, up 3,761 contracts [2] - The total put - call ratio of positions was 141.84%, up 5.0311 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.68%, up 0.0254 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a notice to address abnormal low - price issues in government procurement starting from February 1, 2026 [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued two review requirements to strengthen the access management of road motor vehicle production enterprises and products [2] - As of the end of December 2025, the number of electric vehicle charging facilities in China reached 20.092 million, and the world's largest charging network has been built [2] - The German government will provide subsidies of up to 6,000 euros for families purchasing new electric vehicles starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - In December 2025, China's cumulative export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate was about 1,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 48.6%, and the cumulative import volume was about 32 tons [2] - In 2026, the first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal funds have been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects and driving total investment of over 460 billion yuan [2] Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract showed a slightly bullish and volatile trend, closing up 2.55%. The trading volume increased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis strengthened compared with the previous day [2] - In terms of fundamentals, smelters in the raw material segment have sufficient raw material inventory, but their purchasing attitude is cautious due to high ore prices. On the supply side, due to large market fluctuations, upstream producers have different attitudes towards sales, and upstream inventory has accumulated while production remains relatively stable. On the demand side, downstream buyers are sensitive to lithium prices, being cautious when prices are high and mainly purchasing for刚需. When prices fall from high levels, they are more active in inquiring, and spot market transactions have slightly improved. Overall, they mainly focus on digesting inventory and remain cautious. The inventory destocking rate in the lithium carbonate industry has slowed down [2] - In the option market, the put - call ratio of positions was 141.84%, up 5.0311% month - on - month. Market sentiment was bearish, and implied volatility slightly increased [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, both lines were above the 0 axis, and the red bars slightly converged [2]