瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260122

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MTO industry's weekly average operating rate continued to decline this week, and there is an expectation that the domestic methanol - to - olefins operating rate will still decrease after the offset of the expected shutdown of the Sierbang MTO unit and the planned restart of the Ningbo Fude MTO unit. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2220 - 2300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2260 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was - 19 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the main methanol contract was 817,171 lots, a decrease of 31,791 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 124,400 lots, an increase of 45,132 lots [2]. - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,675, a decrease of 400 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 415 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 262 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 266 euros/ton, an increase of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 60 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 5.04 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 1.15 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 102.53 tons, a decrease of 1.36 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 43.22 tons, an increase of 3.58 tons [2]. - The import profit of methanol was - 11.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.16 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises was 438,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 91.11%, a decrease of 0.31% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 34.23%, an increase of 0.16%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 3.74%, an increase of 0.78% [2]. - The operating rate of acetic acid was 78.4%, an increase of 1.41%; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.57%, unchanged [2]. - The operating rate of olefins was 85.77%, a decrease of 2.29%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 956 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 20.76%, a decrease of 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 17.46%, a decrease of 1.32% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 20.57%, an increase of 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 20.56%, an increase of 0.03% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.83 tons, a decrease of 1.25 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.83 tons, a slight increase of 0.05 tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.21% [2]. - As of January 21, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 145.75 tons, an increase of 2.22 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 1.36 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 3.58 tons. There was a slight accumulation of methanol port inventory this week, with 19.80 tons of visible foreign vessels unloading, and there were still two vessels being unloaded that were not included [2]. - As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78%. The MTO unit of Zhejiang Xingxing continued to be shut down, and the load of some enterprises continued to decrease [2].