2025航运低碳发展展望

Group 1: Policy Evolution - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) postponed the vote on the net-zero framework, impacting the industry's expectations for unified emission reduction rules[9] - The EU's shipping emission reduction policy is set to be implemented, requiring ships over 5,000 gross tons to monitor and report greenhouse gas emissions starting January 1, 2024[16] - China has introduced a series of new policies to promote energy transition and green shipping, aiming for over 50% market share of LNG and methanol-powered vessels by 2025[20] Group 2: Progress in Emission Reduction - Orders for new energy and clean energy vessels have rapidly increased, with 51.6% of current orders by total tonnage being for such vessels[28] - LNG fuel ships dominate the new energy vessel market, with 1,000 LNG fuel ships on order as of October 2025, accounting for 73% and 69% of new orders in 2024 and 2025 respectively[28] - The application of energy efficiency measures is widespread, with nearly 50% of vessels using technologies like propeller ducting and speed reduction[41] Group 3: Challenges in Green Transition - The uncertainty of market mechanisms and economic incentives is a significant barrier, with the IMO's net-zero framework still unresolved, affecting investment confidence[48] - The high cost of green fuels presents a major challenge, with green methanol prices reaching $1,300 to $1,600 per ton, significantly higher than fossil fuels[51] - Emerging technologies pose new risks, as LNG, methanol, and ammonia fuels introduce complexities in safety and operational protocols[52]