TCL电子：25年业绩表现优异，合作Sony加强全球品牌竞争力-20260122

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for TCL Electronics Holdings, with a target price of HK$15.60 based on a current price of HK$12.23 [2][5]. Core Insights - TCL is expected to achieve an adjusted net profit of HK$2.33 billion to HK$2.57 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 45% to 60% compared to 2024 [3][9]. - The company continues to adhere to a globalization and high-end development strategy, with strong growth in global business and improving profitability [3][9]. - A strategic partnership with Sony in the home entertainment sector aims to establish a joint venture, enhancing TCL's global competitiveness and expanding its business territory [3][10]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for TCL are as follows: HK$99.32 billion in 2024, HK$119.64 billion in 2025 (up 26% year-on-year), HK$135.67 billion in 2026 (up 20%), and HK$152.14 billion in 2027 (up 13%) [2][5]. - Net profit is projected to grow from HK$1.76 billion in 2024 to HK$2.47 billion in 2025 (up 137%), HK$3.02 billion in 2026 (up 41%), and HK$3.62 billion in 2027 (up 22%) [2][5]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from HK$0.70 in 2024 to HK$0.98 in 2025, HK$1.20 in 2026, and HK$1.43 in 2027 [2][5]. Market Position - In 2025, global TV shipments are projected to reach 220 million units, a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year, while TCL's shipments are expected to grow by 5.4% to 30.4 million units, capturing a 13.8% market share [4][11]. - TCL ranks second globally in TV shipments, while Sony ranks tenth with a significant decline in shipments [4][11]. - The report anticipates that major sports events in 2026 will help stabilize or increase global TV shipments, with TCL and other leading brands expected to expand their market share [4][11]. Valuation - The valuation for TCL has been adjusted, with EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 raised to HK$0.98, HK$1.20, and HK$1.43 respectively, and a PE valuation of 13x for 2026 [5][12]. - The target price of HK$15.60 reflects the company's strong performance and growth potential in the high-end display technology market [5][12].