市场环境因子跟踪周报（2026.01.16）：市场降温整固，成长优势延续

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for high-growth sectors, suggesting that they possess investment value in the medium to long term [3][9]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a pullback, influenced by policy guidance, leading to a rational market return. Short-term themes have adjusted, but the market is expected to benefit from a slow bull trend after consolidation [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting industries with upward momentum, particularly as selling pressure diminishes [3][9]. Summary by Sections Stock Market Factor Tracking - The market style remains biased towards small-cap stocks, with a continued preference for growth over value styles. Both small-cap and growth style volatilities have reached near one-year highs, indicating increased fluctuations in returns between styles [10][11]. - The report notes a rebound in the dispersion of excess returns across industries, while the speed of industry rotation continues to decline. The proportion of rising stocks in the 300 and 500 indices has significantly decreased [10][11]. - Market activity shows a decline in volatility for most indices, except for the 1000 index, while turnover rates are on the rise [10][11]. Commodity Market Factor Tracking - The energy and precious metals sectors have seen an increase in trend strength, while other sectors have experienced a decline. The basis momentum for precious metals and agricultural products has risen, contrasting with declines in other sectors [23][28]. - Volatility remains high for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while black and energy sectors have seen slight decreases in volatility. Liquidity has decreased in precious metals and energy sectors, with other sectors experiencing increases [23][28]. Options Market Factor Tracking - Implied volatility for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 1000 indices has begun to decline from recent highs. The skew in volatility indicates a decrease in bullish sentiment and an increase in bearish sentiment, suggesting that market participants perceive a lower risk of significant declines in small-cap stocks in the short term [31][32]. Convertible Bond Market Factor Tracking - The convertible bond market has experienced wide fluctuations. The premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan has stabilized, showing a slight adjustment, while the proportion of low-premium convertible bonds has increased. However, market transaction volumes remain high [33][34].