《能源化工》日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply slightly declined, downstream load increased, and port inventory decreased, but the absolute inventory level remained high. Styrene was driven by exports and device issues, with strong price trends. The spread between styrene and pure benzene is expected to have limited room for further expansion. Strategies include temporary observation and focusing on opportunities to shrink the EB - BZ spread [1]. Natural Rubber - Supply is shrinking as Thailand and Vietnam enter the production - reduction period, and raw material prices are rising. Demand from some semi - steel tire enterprises for export is sufficient, but domestic sales are slow. The social inventory of natural rubber in China is accumulating. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,500 - 16,500 [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: Spot prices are stable, with high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Glass: Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Futures prices are expected to continue the weak - oscillation trend in the short term [6]. Crude Oil - International oil prices declined due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and significant inventory accumulation. Brent crude oil is expected to oscillate between 60 - 66 dollars per barrel in the short term [8]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the marginal supply is expected to increase, and demand is in the seasonal off - season. For PP, the supply - demand situation is weak, but the balance has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [10]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, and the basis is weakening. The inland supply is high, and traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is slightly decreasing, but MTO demand is weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of Iranian imports and the subsiding of geopolitical risk premiums [12]. Urea - Urea futures rose, and spot prices were stable. Supply is sufficient in the short term, and demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1,740 - 1,790 range [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Prices rebounded slightly, but the supply - demand imbalance persists, and the rebound height of futures is expected to be limited. - PVC: Futures rose, but the supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate widely with cost support and supply - demand pressure [15]. LPG - LPG futures prices rose, and inventory decreased. The upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly. The market situation needs to be further observed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Supply is high in January, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival and have strong support in the second quarter. - PTA: Supply - demand is weakening, and the basis is weakening. Futures prices rose, but the self - driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. - MEG: Supply is high, and there is a large inventory accumulation expectation. - Bottle chips: Supply is expected to decline, and demand will weaken seasonally. - Short fibers: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices follow raw materials [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China pure benzene prices increased. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha widened [1]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: Styrene spot and futures prices increased, and the spread between styrene and pure benzene widened [1]. - Downstream Cash Flows: The cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [1]. - Inventory: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports decreased [1]. - Industry Operating Rates: The operating rates of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industrial chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Natural Rubber - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased, and the basis changed [2]. - Inter - monthly Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread and 1 - 5 spread changed [2]. - Fundamentals: Thai and Indonesian rubber production decreased, while Indian and Chinese production increased. Tire production and export increased, and the operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires changed [2]. - Inventory Changes: The bonded area inventory of natural rubber increased, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: Glass spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: Soda ash spot prices were stable, and futures prices increased [6]. - Supply: Soda ash production and operating rate increased, while the float - glass daily melting volume decreased slightly, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume increased [6]. - Inventory: Glass factory inventory decreased, and soda ash factory inventory increased [6]. - Real Estate Data: New construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate changed, with some improving and some deteriorating [6]. Crude Oil - Crude Oil Prices and Spreads: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, while SC crude oil prices increased. Spreads between different crude oil varieties and months changed [8]. - Refined Oil Prices and Spreads: Refined oil prices decreased, and spreads between different refined oil products and months changed [8]. - Refined Oil Crack Spreads: Crack spreads of some refined oil products decreased [8]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: LLDPE and PP futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between LLDPE and PP changed [10]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: PE and PP device operating rates and downstream operating rates changed [10]. - Inventory: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories decreased [10]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures prices increased, and the basis and spreads between different contracts changed [12]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise and port inventories changed, with enterprise inventory decreasing and port inventory increasing [12]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [12]. Urea - Futures and Spot Prices: Urea futures prices rose, and spot prices were stable [14]. - Supply and Demand: Urea production increased, and demand from some industries decreased. The inventory decreased [14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices changed, with PVC prices rising and caustic soda prices rebounding slightly [15]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - Supply: Chlor - alkali operating rates and industry profits changed [15]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates of PVC and caustic soda changed [15]. - Inventory: Chlor - alkali social and factory inventories changed [15]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: LPG futures prices increased, and spreads between different contracts and between spot and futures changed [16]. - Inventory: LPG refinery and port inventories decreased [16]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: Upstream and downstream operating rates of LPG changed [16]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Crude oil, naphtha, MX, and PX prices changed [17]. - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester chips changed [17]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: PX prices and spreads changed [17]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: PTA prices and spreads changed [17]. - MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Expectations: MEG port inventory decreased, and the arrival expectation increased [17]. - Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates: Operating rates of different industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17].