《有色》日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, after the copper price rapidly rose to a historical high, the CL premium did not widen further. If the CL premium reverses, COMEX copper inventory may flow back to non - US regions, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions. In the long - term, the price bottom center is expected to gradually rise due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. Currently, the real terminal demand is weak, and the copper price may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Attention should be paid to the changes in CL premium and LME inventory, with the main support level at 97500 - 98500 [2]. Zinc - The zinc price rebounded after the center of gravity moved down. The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports the price, but the import window of zinc ore is opening, which may relieve the short - term supply pressure. The supply pressure of refined zinc has been alleviated due to the reduction in production by smelters. The demand is suppressed by the high zinc price, and the global visible inventory has slightly decreased. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory, with the main support at around 23800 [5]. Tin - In the short - term, the tin price is greatly affected by market sentiment, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. In the long - term, the supply side is gradually recovering, but considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term impact of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is advisable [8]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The supply and demand in January both weakened slightly, and are expected to decline significantly in February. If the production of industrial silicon drops significantly, it will be beneficial for the price to rise. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the changes in demand - side production [9]. Polysilicon - The spot average price of polysilicon has decreased, and the futures price has rebounded. The silicon wafer price has continued to decline slightly. The demand expectation has improved due to the stimulation of export demand, but the polysilicon and silicon wafer prices are under pressure due to high inventory. It is expected that the monthly average production of polysilicon will drop to about 80,000 tons in the first quarter. The price may be supported at 48,000 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises can consider hedging according to order situations [10]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry cash cost line, and the main contract reference range is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market shows a high - level volatile pattern. The price is expected to maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 23000 - 24500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the actual inventory accumulation speed, downstream consumption resilience, overseas monetary policy, and geopolitical events [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is mainly affected by macro and Indonesian nickel ore quota disturbances in the short - term. The support from news has been mostly digested, and the further driving force is limited. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the main reference range of 138000 - 148000 [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to continue the high - level volatile pattern in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices, the actual inflow of imported goods, and the pre - Spring Festival inventory - building efforts [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, with the main reference range of 14200 - 15000. Attention should be paid to the news from the ore end and the downstream inventory - building situation [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. The supply is expected to decline, and the downstream demand maintains a certain resilience. Attention should be paid to the actual adjustment of material factory production schedules. Short - term chasing of the rising price should be cautious due to high valuation and liquidity risks [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 100070 yuan/ton, up 0.01% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 170 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 2723 yuan/ton, down 8.37% [2]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; the import volume was 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 69.04 million tons, up 7.81% week - on - week [2]. Zinc - Price and Basis: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 24310 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day; the premium was 0. The import profit and loss was - 1874 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month; the export volume was 2.73 million tons, down 36.32% month - on - month. The galvanizing start - up rate was 55.63%, up 2.15% week - on - week [5]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin was at 403250 yuan/ton, up 1.90% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 0, down 100.00% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 7675.70 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the tin ore import volume was 17637 tons, up 16.81% from the previous month; the SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06% from the previous month; the refined tin export volume was 2763 tons, up 41.84% from the previous month [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Basis: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract price was 8852 yuan/ton, up 0.51% from the previous day [9]. - Fundamental Data: In January, the national industrial silicon production was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% from the previous month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production was 25.29 million tons, up 6.46% from the previous month. The social inventory was 55.60 million tons, up 0.18% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon - Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 54000 yuan/kg, down 0.92% from the previous day; the main contract price was 50515 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from the previous day [10]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, up 0.79% from the previous month; the import volume was 0.19 million tons, up 77.50% from the previous month; the export volume was 0.17 million tons, down 48.29% from the previous month [10]. Aluminum - Price and Basis: SMM A00 aluminum was at 23740 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 150 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the alumina production was 751.96 million tons, up 1.08% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 258.81 million tons, up 3.56% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 145750 yuan/ton, up 0.59% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 8750 yuan/ton, down 2.78% from the previous day. The futures import profit and loss was 229 yuan/ton [12]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31400 tons, up 26.10% from the previous month; the refined nickel import volume was 23394 tons, up 84.63% from the previous month. The SHFE inventory was 48180 tons, up 3.28% week - on - week [12]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Basis: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 23850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Foshan crushed primary aluminum refined - scrap price difference was 2539 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from the previous day [13]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% from the previous month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 30.41 million tons, up 0.46% from the previous month. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.19%, down 5.90% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel - Price and Basis: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 14600 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous day; the futures - spot price difference was 120 yuan/ton, up 340.00% from the previous day [15]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% from the previous month; the Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% from the previous month. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 45.39 million tons, up 0.71% week - on - week [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 164500 yuan/ton, up 3.79% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 161000 yuan/ton, up 3.87% from the previous day. The spot - futures basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate as the benchmark) was - 4280 yuan/ton, up 48.06% from the previous day [16]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% from the previous month; the battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 74110 tons, up 5.42% from the previous month; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 25090 tons, up 0.16% from the previous month. The lithium carbonate total inventory was 56664 tons, down 12.23% from the previous month [16].