LPG早报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, rising first and then falling, with a slight upward shift in the weekly central value. The 02 basis was 138 (-41), the 02 - 03 spread was 70 (+15), and the 03 - 04 spread was -250 (-58). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4440 (+40), East China at 4523 (+56), and South China at 5035 (+195). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4340 (-50). The number of warehouse receipts was 5977 lots (-241). The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic and foreign PG - FEI reached 73.6 (-11.9), and PG - CP reached 69.6 (-8). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China was 77 (-2); the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 37.75 (+3.75), 29 (-1), and 50.8 US dollars (+9.12) respectively. Freight rates increased, with the US Gulf - Japan at 139 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ spread was -27 (weekly +12). PDH profits significantly recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. PDH operating rate was 73.07% (-2.54 pct), and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February (Juzhengyuan Phase II and Zhongjing Phase II), with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high; the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, as the impact of the US fog was expected to be small, and although the Middle East was tight in the short term, it would be loose later; the combustion demand was coming to an end in February, and the PDH operating rate decreased. The domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Data - From January 16 to January 22, 2026, the prices of South China LPG changed from 5035 to 4815, East China LPG from 4523 to 4428, Shandong LPG from 4440 to 4480, propane CFR South China from 597 to 610, propane CIF Japan from 549 to 595, CP forecast contract price from 527 to 537, Shandong ether - after C4 from 4340 to 4360, Shandong alkylate from 7150 to 7150, paper import profit from 254 to -65, and the main basis from 486 to 394. The daily changes on January 22 were -25, -39, 10, 6, 24, 6, 30, 20, -74, -104 respectively [1] Daily View - On Thursday, the 02 - 03 spread was 67 (+2), the 03 - 04 spread was -275 (-11), and the 02 - 04 spread was -208 (-9). At 9:30 PM on Thursday, the FEI and CP paper prices reached 551.19 and 534.19 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly View - This week, the domestic market was greatly affected by geopolitical factors, with the weekly central value slightly shifting upward. The 02 basis decreased by 41, the 02 - 03 spread increased by 15, and the 03 - 04 spread decreased by 58. Civil gas prices increased, and the cheapest deliverable decreased by 50. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 241. The FEI and CP spreads rose, the MB spread fell, the oil - gas ratio weakened, and FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB. The domestic - foreign spreads decreased, the CIF discount in East China decreased, the FOB discounts in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States changed, the freight rate increased, and the FEI - MOPJ spread increased week - on - week. PDH profits recovered but were still poor. Port inventories decreased by 4.9%, arrivals increased by 2.7%, and overall shipments increased significantly. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.66 pct, and external releases decreased by 0.19%. The PDH operating rate decreased by 2.54 pct, and there were expectations of multiple plant shutdowns in February, with the PDH operating rate expected to continue to decline. Overall, domestic and foreign valuations were high, the expected supply - demand pattern in the foreign market weakened, the domestic valuation was neutral, with 2 - 3 and 3 - 4 spreads in reverse arbitrage, and subsequent attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]