建信期货棉花日报-20260123

Report Overview - Report Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The Zhengzhou cotton futures market has been oscillating and rising. The domestic cotton spot price is supported by a firm basis, while the international cotton price remains weak, leading to a widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The demand side of the cotton yarn market shows a differentiated trend, with high - count yarn orders better than medium - and low - count yarns. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and rose. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream basis for machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and northern Xinjiang was relatively high. The price of pure cotton yarn remained stable overall, with high - count yarn prices strong due to low production capacity and high demand, while the transaction focus of air - spun and low - count yarns moved slightly downward. The shipment of all - cotton grey cloth in some local markets was acceptable, and thin plain grey cloth had relatively better sales [7] - Domestic Market Data: As of January 21, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 7.0601 million tons, an increase of 19,900 tons from the previous day, with 6.9698 million tons in Xinjiang, an increase of 18,000 tons. Recently, cotton merchants have increased their purchases of cotton spot, and the basis for cotton spot sales has gradually risen [8] - Market Situation and Suggestions: The domestic cotton spot price is difficult to fall due to the firm basis, while the international cotton price is weak, resulting in a continuous high gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices. The import volume of cotton yarn has increased recently. The demand side of the cotton yarn market is differentiated. With limited changes in fundamentals, Zhengzhou cotton has entered a wide - range oscillating adjustment phase in the short term, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [8] 3.2 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that Trump plans to visit China in April, and there may be a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US before the visit, focusing on basic goods and services and avoiding sensitive issues such as technology and rare earths. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman called on both sides to implement the consensus of the heads of state to inject stability into economic and trade cooperation [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF spreads, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][17][27]