集运早报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the futures market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush may slow down the price decline in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying at low prices during the spot market's bottom - finding process [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts. However, far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to adopt a positive spread trading strategy and consider shorting the EC2610 contract at high prices (the current valuation of EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous trading day were 1707.6, 1137.7, 1399.1, 1498.4, and 1086.4 respectively, with daily changes of 0.02%, 0.71%, 1.53%, 0.83%, and 1.09% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 on the previous trading day were 748, 19477, 3227, 128, and 1037 respectively, and the open interests were 4681, 40770, 4883, 1353, and 8318 respectively, with open interest changes of - 4.25, - 529, 826, 6, and - 29 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 on the previous day were 569 and - 261.4 respectively, with daily changes of - 7.6 and - 13.1, and weekly changes of - 19.6 and - 71.2 [2]. Spot Market Information - Spot Indexes: The spot index (OCEAN LINE) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, with a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. The SCFI (OCEAN LINE) on January 16, 2026, was 1676 dollars/TEU, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.50% [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: From Week 4 to Week 6 in February, the central quotes of European line spot prices were 2630, 2540, and 2300 dollars respectively, equivalent to 1840, 1780, and 1600 points on the futures market. Some shipping companies adjusted their February freight rates, such as YML reducing its special - offer rate from 2100 to 2000, and EMC reducing its price to 2400 [4]. Relevant News - Israeli President Herzog stated that Hamas still holds hostages in Gaza, and the real test of the second - stage cease - fire lies in Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah is trying to reorganize, and the Houthi rebels are still active [5]. - Trump said that only small - scale conflicts remain in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas does not fulfill its promise and lay down its arms, it will be finished. He also called for action against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5]. - The Iranian Speaker announced that all cities in Iran have returned to peace [5].