建信期货原油日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term oil price may be pushed up by the rising natural gas price, but it is difficult to become the main upward logic, so it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [7]. - The US is accelerating the takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and has sold the first batch of Venezuelan oil, which is marginally bearish for the supply side. It is highly likely that Venezuela will achieve a daily production increase of 100,000 barrels this year. The situation in Iran has cooled down, but the US still retains the option to strike. The production and export scale of Iran are much larger than those of Venezuela, and its geographical location is extremely sensitive. The Middle - East situation should be continuously monitored [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: WTI's opening price was $59.57, closing price was $60.67, highest price was $60.89, lowest price was $59.22, with a daily increase of 0.51% and a trading volume of 30.31 million barrels. Brent's opening price was $63.55, closing price was $64.62, highest price was $64.74, lowest price was $63.05, with a daily increase of 0.67% and a trading volume of 40.61 million barrels. SC's opening price was 444.5 yuan/barrel, closing price was 446.4 yuan/barrel, highest price was 448.6 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 444.1 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 1.2% and a trading volume of 8.42 million barrels [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Be cautious about chasing up short - term oil prices [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2026 from 2.4 million barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and increased the average growth forecast of oil demand in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from the previous forecast of 860,000 barrels per day [8]. - A source said that the US Energy Secretary told oil industry executives at the Davos meeting that Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase by 30% from the current 900,000 barrels per day in the medium and short term [8]. - Valero Energy made its first purchase of Venezuelan crude oil, with an agreement to buy up to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI spot price, Dtd Brent price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption, with data sources from Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [11][12][17]