原油成品油早报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out. Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while total waterborne inventories are decreasing month - on - month but higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, and the Dubai market is loose. WTI and Brent markets are decoupled. European refinery profits are under downward pressure due to rising crude oil prices, and the absolute price center in the first quarter remains high. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Day - to - Day News - On January 22, Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said that all cities in Iran had returned to peace after recent riots, which he considered a continuation of the "12 - day war" last June, supported by Israel and the US. Turkish Parliament Speaker Kurtulmuş hoped Iran would maintain peace and stability. [3] - US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at Davos that global oil production needs to more than double, and he criticized the EU and California for wasting funds on inefficient green energy projects. [4] - India's Reliance Industries will obtain Russian oil again in February and March after a one - month suspension. [19] - The US Energy Secretary told oil industry executives at the Davos meeting that Venezuela's oil production is expected to increase by 30% from the current 900,000 barrels per day in the medium - to - short - term. [19] b. Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week of January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day. [5] - In the week of January 16, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day. [19] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.85% increase. [19] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year. [19] - In the week of January 16, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, a 0.19% increase. [19] - In the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [19]