铝日报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On the 22nd, the aluminum price fluctuated narrowly with a decline followed by a rise. The main contract closed up 1.59% at 24,055 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price led to a slight improvement in the overall purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises, but they remained cautious. The spot premium/discount is expected to remain under pressure. The discount in East China was -150, -250 in Central China, and -115 in South China. [7] - A mine collapse in Guinea on the 21st caused casualties. Although it has not affected the production of the core bauxite mining areas in Guinea for the time being, it still had an emotional impact on the alumina market. On the 22nd, the futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton at a low level, but it is expected to mainly fluctuate widely at a low level under the suppression of the oversupply fundamentals. [7] - The supply side of electrolytic aluminum remained basically stable. The new electrolytic aluminum projects in China and Indonesia continued to increase production, but the short - term increment was limited. High aluminum prices still suppressed the end - users, but benefiting from the inventory preparation demand for finished products as the Spring Festival approached, the demand side still had some resilience. The continuous inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots put some pressure on the market. Currently, aluminum prices are still dominated by macro and capital factors. Due to the fluctuations in macro - sentiment and the previous rapid rise, the short - term aluminum price adjustment should be treated with caution. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - Aluminum price: The main contract of aluminum price rose 1.59% to 24,055 yuan/ton on the 22nd, with the total open interest decreasing by 3,979 lots to 710,000 lots. The adjustment of aluminum price improved the downstream purchasing sentiment slightly, but the spot premium/discount is under pressure. [7] - Alumina: The mine collapse in Guinea affected the alumina market sentiment. The futures price rebounded nearly 2% to 2,717 yuan/ton on the 22nd, and is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level due to the oversupply. [7] - Electrolytic aluminum supply and demand: The supply is basically stable with limited short - term increment. High prices suppress the end - users, but the demand has some resilience due to the Spring Festival inventory preparation. The inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots pressures the market. Aluminum prices are dominated by macro and capital factors, and short - term adjustment is expected. [7] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - Mine collapse in Guinea: On January 21, 2026, a mechanized mine in the Doko mining area of Siguiri Province, Guinea, collapsed, causing 6 miners to die. The accident is in the gold - mining area, about 800 kilometers away from the core bauxite mining area, and has not affected the bauxite production for the time being. [8][10] - "Aluminum replacing copper" in the air - conditioning industry: 19 air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of the "aluminum replacing copper" series of standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum - made household air - conditioning products as early as 2026, while others had no such plan. [10] - Production cut by Rio Tinto: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs. [10] - Mining plan of Nalco: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is also expanding the fifth production line of its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual production capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons. [10]