原木期货日报-20260123

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Log Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [1] - Author: Cao Jianlan [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Group 3: Core Views - The spot market is firm, with some specifications in Jiangsu region experiencing price increases due to low inventory. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, limiting the upside potential. Recently, the log futures have declined with increasing positions, and the current price has fallen below the cost line. In the short - term, the price is expected to have certain support. It is advisable to go long at low prices in the range of 750 - 800 [3] Group 4: Price and Basis Futures Prices - On January 22, the price of Log 2601 was 772.5, down 2.5 (-0.32%) from January 21; Log 2603 was 768.5, up 4.5 (0.59%); Log 2605 was 786.0, up 4.5 (0.58%); Log 2607 was 799.5, up 4.5 (0.57%) [2] Spot Prices - The price of Rizhao Port 3.9A small radiata pine remained at 680.0 on January 22 and 21; 3.9A medium radiata pine at 740; 3.9A large radiata pine at 850. Taicang Port 4A small radiata pine was 700 on January 22, up 10 (1.45%) from January 21; 4A medium radiata pine was 770, up 10 (1.32%); 4A large radiata pine remained at 800. Rizhao Port spruce 11.8 was 1150 on January 22, down 10 (-0.86%) from January 21 [2] Basis - The basis of the main contract on January 22 was -28.5, down 4.5 from January 21 [2] Outer - market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine remained at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter on January 23 and January 16; the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 124 euros/JAS cubic meter [2] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on January 23 was 6.965, up 0.01 from January 22. The import theoretical cost (calculated at 15% over - size) was 754.54 yuan on January 23, up 0.71 from January 22 [2] Group 5: Supply Monthly Supply - As of December 31, the port freight volume was 204.0 million cubic meters, up 14.8 (7.82%) from November 30. The number of ships at the port was 55.0, up 6.0 (12.24%) from 49.0 [2] Forecasted Shipments - From January 19 - January 25, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week (0% week - on - week increase), and the total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, down 19,000 cubic meters (5% week - on - week decrease) [3] Group 6: Inventory and Demand Inventory - As of January 16, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.57 million cubic meters, down 120,000 cubic meters from last week (-4.46%) [2][3] Demand - As of January 16, the daily average log outbound volume was 61,600 cubic meters, up 4,100 cubic meters from last week (7%) [3]