镍日报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, the nickel price continued to fluctuate widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark. The main contract closed up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreased by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point again. The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate continued to fall by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction. The nickel market has great upward elasticity, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Indonesian policy and the actual quota issuance rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price trend: On the 22nd, the nickel price fluctuated widely supported by the 140,000 integer mark, with the main contract closing up 1.15% at 142,500, and the total positions decreasing by 6,645 hands to 386,000 hands compared with the previous day [7]. - Price changes of related products: The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron rose by 5 to 1,033.5 yuan per nickel point; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate fell by 600 to 32,750 yuan per ton; the MHP coefficient of intermediate products remained high, and the short - term market circulation was still limited [7]. - Market influencing factors: The strong bullish sentiment in the pure nickel segment drove the nickel iron to rise, but the high cost reduced the downstream acceptance. High prices led to insufficient pre - holiday stocking willingness of downstream, and the nickel salt price dropped from a high level. The news that Vale only had 30% of the approved quota for production demand further solidified the expectation of quota reduction [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia's project progress: The HPAL Pomalaa project of PT Vale, Huayou, and Ford is accelerating. As of December 2025, the construction progress of the HPAL Pomalaa project has reached about 60%. Two autoclave equipment have arrived at the project site, and three other units are planned to be delivered later. The company aims to complete the mechanical completion of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the only nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.'s production and cost situation: In 2025, the company's copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; the gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; the Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, mainly due to higher maintenance requirements at Sentinel and lower ore grades at Kansanshi. The nickel production guidance remained unchanged. The unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance was raised because some investments originally planned for 2025 were postponed to 2026. The Panama government agreed to process the Cobre Panamá inventory ore, which is a positive signal for the project [10]. - Indonesia's nickel industry situation: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. In 2026, the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) is expected to be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply still depends on the later government assessment and quota addition [10].