贵金属日评-20260123

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry dated January 23, 2026 [1] - The research team members include He Zhuoqiao (macro precious metals), Huang Wenxin (treasury bonds and container shipping), and Nie Jiayi (stock index) [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4][6] - Geopolitical risks may significantly increase in 2026, and the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. The precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024 [6] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold, but the large influx of investment funds also means significant amplification of price volatility [6] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump's withdrawal of the threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries during the Davos Forum and the agreement on the future cooperation framework in Greenland and the entire Arctic region between the US and NATO led to a significant adjustment in precious metals overnight. However, media reports of the US trying to overthrow the Cuban regime and the weakness of the US real estate market helped precious metals recover most of the previous day's losses in the Asian session on the 22nd, remaining in a relatively strong operating pattern [4] Medium - term Market - Trump will focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks [6] - The industrial demand for silver is significantly boosted by the global green energy transition, and the expected industrial demand for platinum and palladium is improved due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. The strong and rising gold price boosts the physical demand for silver, platinum, and palladium through jewelry substitution demand [6] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading mindset but strictly control the position size. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage of going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long hedgers should conduct hedging in batches as soon as possible, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [6] Group 5: Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 1,092.94 | 1,100.06 | 1,074.63 | 1,088.22 | - 0.43% | 369,376 | - 11,750 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 23,112 | 23,352 | 22,409 | 23,319 | 0.90% | 693,041 | 12,506 | | Guangzhou Platinum Index | 627.94 | 633.50 | 606.34 | 633.47 | 0.88% | 36,352 | - 1,071 | | Guangzhou Palladium Index | 487.24 | 487.74 | 470.95 | 484.52 | - 0.56% | 13,918 | - 5 | [5] Group 6: Main Macro Events/Data - Trump withdrew the threat of using tariffs as a bargaining chip for Greenland and ruled out the possibility of using force. An agreement to end the dispute over the Danish territory is about to be reached [18] - The US Supreme Court justices seem skeptical of Trump's attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook. Trump said he is close to selecting a new Fed chairman and prefers to keep White House economic advisor Hassett in his current position [18] - US pending home sales unexpectedly dropped to a five - month low in December. The decline of 9.3% to 71.8 was due to increased concerns in the labor market and the shortage of entry - level housing offsetting the boost from lower mortgage rates [18]