永安期货集运早报-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual cargo rush. Spot price drops may suppress the market, but the post - Chinese New Year cargo rush could reduce the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to watch for potential correction opportunities, such as buying on dips during the spot price bottom - finding process [3][33] - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. A positive spread trading strategy is generally recommended, and also pay attention to shorting the EC2610 contract when the price rises (the current valuation of the EC2610 is neutral with limited downside) [3][33] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1707.6, up 0.02%, with a basis of 248.8, a trading volume of 748, an open interest of 4681, and an open interest change of -425 [2][32] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1137.7, up 0.71%, with a basis of 818.7, a trading volume of 19477, an open interest of 40770, and an open interest change of -529 [2][32] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1399.1, up 1.53%, with a basis of 557.3, a trading volume of 3227, an open interest of 4883, and an open interest change of 826 [2][32] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1498.4, up 0.83%, with a basis of 458.0, a trading volume of 128, an open interest of 1353, and an open interest change of 6 [2][32] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1086.4, up 1.09%, with a basis of 870.0, a trading volume of 1037, an open interest of 8318, and an open interest change of -29 [2][32] 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The day - on - day change was -7.6, and the week - on - week change was -19.6 [2][32] - EC2504 - 2606: The day - on - day change was -13.1, and the week - on - week change was -71.2 [2][32] 3.3 Index Data - Spot (European Line): As of 2026/1/12, the index was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from the period before the previous one [2][32] - SCFI: As of 2026/1/16, it was 1676 dollars/TEU, down 2.50% from the previous period [2][32] 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 4: MSK's opening price was 2750 (up 100 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (YML had two special offers at 2250), OA was 2700 - 2900 dollars. The central price was 2630 dollars, equivalent to 1840 points on the futures [4][34] - Week 5: MSK's opening price was 2450 (down 300 month - on - month), PA was 2400 (special offer at 2200), OA was 2700 dollars. The central price was 2540 dollars, equivalent to 1780 points on the futures [4][34] - February Week 6: MSK's opening price was 2000/2100 (down 400 month - on - month), currently OA is 2400 - 2600, PA is 2000 - 2200. The central price is about 2300 dollars, equivalent to about 1600 points on the futures [4][34] 3.5 News - On Wednesday, YML lowered its February freight rates. The FAK quote remained at 2400, and the special offer dropped from 2100 to 2000. CMA quoted a February freight rate of 2600 online. Other shipping companies remained unchanged [4][34] - On Thursday, COSCO quoted 2500 on the European line, and EMC cut its price to 2400 [4][34] - On 1/23, Israeli President Herzog said Hamas still held hostages in Gaza. The real test of the second - stage cease - fire was Hamas' withdrawal from Gaza. Hezbollah was trying to reorganize and rebuild, and the Houthi rebels were still active [5][35] - On 1/23, Trump said there were only small - scale conflicts left in ending the Gaza conflict. If Hamas didn't fulfill its promise to lay down arms, it would be finished. He also said action must be taken against Hezbollah and Lebanon [5][35] - On 1/23, the Iranian Speaker said all cities in Iran had returned to peace [5][35]