生猪市场周报：备货启动在即，供需博弈加剧-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs broke through the support level and declined, with the main contract 2603 dropping 3.46% weekly. The supply may increase as the slaughter rhythm is slow in the first and middle of the month, and there might be normal slaughter at the end of the month, or even early slaughter in February. The demand is expected to improve as the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling starts in the next three weeks. Overall, both supply and demand will increase, leading to intensified competition and volatile prices. In the medium - term, the supply will continue to be realized, putting pressure on prices [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - The price of live pigs broke through the support level and declined, with the main contract 2603 dropping 3.46% weekly. The supply may increase, and the pre - Spring Festival stockpiling will start, resulting in intensified competition between supply and demand, and the price of live pigs will fluctuate. The medium - term supply will continue to be realized, putting pressure on prices [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The futures price declined this week, and the main contract 2603 dropped 3.46% weekly [7][10]. - Net Position and Warehouse Receipts: The net short position of futures decreased, and there were 815 futures warehouse receipts. As of January 23, the net short position of the top 20 holders was 49,900 lots, a decrease of 1,637 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 433, a decrease of 422 lots from the previous week [12][16]. - Contract Spreads: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 285, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 905 [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - Live Pig and Piglet Prices: The spot price of live pigs increased this week, and the price of piglets increased month - on - month. The national average price of live pigs was 12.97 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.28 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.03 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.89 yuan/kg from last week [33]. - Pork and Sows Prices: The price of pork increased, and the price of sows remained stable. On January 15, the national market price of pork was 23.21 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.21 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, with no increase from the previous week [39]. - Pig - to - Grain Ratio: The pig - to - grain ratio increased month - on - month but was still below 6:1. As of the week of January 7, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.51, an increase of 0.11 from the previous week [41][43]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sow Inventory: In December 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, equivalent to 101.56% of the normal inventory, in the green zone. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year in December, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [44][46]. - Live Pig Inventory: At the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million, a decrease of 1.6% quarter - on - quarter and an increase of 0.5% year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms in December decreased by 0.23% month - on - month and increased by 4.72% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 8.17% year - on - year [47][50]. - Slaughter Volume and Weight: According to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms in December increased by 3.68% month - on - month and 6.64% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms increased by 6.39% month - on - month and 13.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of domestic ternary live pigs this week was 123.5 kg, the same as last week [51][55]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding Profits: As of January 23, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was 115.84 yuan/head, an increase of 67.49 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 43.35 yuan/head, an increase of 35.97 yuan/head. The breeding profit of laying hens was 0.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.24 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 yuan/head [60]. - Pork Imports: In December 2025, China's pork imports were 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33%; from January to December, pork imports were 980,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.41% [66]. - Substitute Products: As of the week of January 23, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg from last week. The average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg from last week [71]. - Feed Situation: As of January 23, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,194.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,373.14 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.22 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 914.1, and the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week. In December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons month - on - month. The sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.39% month - on - month and increased by 69.09% year - on - year [76][79][83]. - CPI: As of December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year [87]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and Inventory: In the fourth week of 2026, the slaughter enterprise's开工 rate was 35.18%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points from last week and 8.19 percentage points from the same period last year, with the enterprise's开工 rate fluctuating between 33.47% and 36.11%. The fresh - sales rate of domestic key slaughter enterprises was 87.43%, a decrease of 0.18% from last week; the frozen - product storage rate was 17.30%, a decrease of 0.18% from last week [90]. - Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption: As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million heads, an increase of 3.21% from the previous month and 24.04% quarter - on - quarter. In December 2025, the national catering revenue was 573.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.19% [95]. 3.7 Live - Pig Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [96].