国债期货周报：供给压力担忧缓和，超长端企稳回升-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment has recovered as some negative factors eased. The regulatory adjustment of the margin ratio for margin trading cooled the equity market, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. In 2025, China's economic structural contradictions still need improvement. In the next stage, facing significant external uncertainties, the endogenous growth foundation of the economy needs further consolidation, and expanding domestic demand will become the policy focus. The central bank stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year as internal and external constraints weaken. The issuance pace of interest rate bonds in January was stable, alleviating market concerns about the supply pressure of long - term bonds. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is still waiting for new incremental information for directional selection [102][103]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - Weekly Data: The 30 - year TL2603 contract rose 1.03%, the 10 - year T2603 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2603 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2603 contract rose 0.02%. The trading volume of TF, T, TS, and TL main contracts decreased. The open interest of the TS main contract decreased, while that of TF, T, and TL main contracts increased [12][27]. 3.2. News Review and Analysis - Domestic News: In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.0% year - on - year, with a 4.5% increase in the fourth quarter. Fiscal and financial policies to boost domestic demand were introduced, including a 500 billion yuan private investment special guarantee plan and loan discount policies. The National Development and Reform Commission planned to implement measures to boost employment and income, and support the service industry. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued [33][34]. - Overseas News: The US economy showed strong data, with the Q3 2025 GDP final value growing at an annualized rate of 4.4% quarter - on - quarter. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The situation in Greenland eased, and the US president reached a "framework agreement" with NATO on the Greenland issue [35][102]. 3.3. Chart Analysis - Spread Changes: The yield spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, and 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts widened. The 10 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract's inter - period spread widened, the 5 - year contract's inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract's inter - period spread fluctuated [41][50][54]. - Main Contract Position Changes: The net short positions of the top 20 holders of the T main contract increased significantly [68]. - Interest Rate Changes: Overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while the 1 - month Shibor rate decreased. The DR007 weighted average rate rebounded to around 1.49%. The yields of treasury bonds decreased across the board, with the 1.7 - year yield decreasing by 1 - 4.3bp, and the 10 - year and 30 - year yields decreasing by 1.1bp and 4.85bp to 1.83% and 2.26% respectively. The yield spreads between US and Chinese 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds widened [72][78]. - Bond Issuance and Maturity: This week, the total bond issuance was 1.569038 trillion yuan, the total repayment was 1.019335 trillion yuan, and the net financing was 549.703 billion yuan [85]. - Market Sentiment: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9929, up 149 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates narrowed. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield increased, the VIX index rose sharply and then fell. The 10 - year treasury bond yield in China decreased, and the A - share risk premium remained the same as last week [91][94][99]. 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategies - Domestic: In 2025, China's economy maintained a stable and progressive growth trend, but there were significant internal structural differences. The growth momentum mainly relied on strong exports and stable production, while domestic demand recovery was more policy - driven, and the self - growth momentum of investment and consumption was insufficient [102]. - Overseas: The US economic data was strong, and the consumer resilience supported economic expansion. The situation in Greenland improved [102]. - Outlook: With the easing of some negative factors, the bond market sentiment has recovered. It is expected that interest rates will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, and the market is waiting for new information for directional selection [103].