瑞达期货铂镍金市场周报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, macro shocks continued to provide safe - haven support for the precious metals market, leading to an upward - trending and volatile platinum - palladium market. The short - term risk - aversion sentiment is expected to remain high due to uncertainties such as the US tariff plan and Trump's stance on the Greenland acquisition. Supply is restricted by South Africa's power issues and Russia's export conditions, while demand for platinum may increase due to new EU emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium will dominate trading, with a likely "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to trade between $2500/oz and $2800/oz, and London palladium between $1800/oz and $2000/oz [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro factors: The US tariff plan on eight European countries was postponed, but Trump's attitude towards Greenland acquisition is uncertain, keeping short - term risk - aversion high. South Africa's power company maintains load - shedding, limiting smelter short - term production. The weakening of the South African rand may suppress marginal supply in US dollars. Russia has no new export guidance, and the "east - bound sales priority" policy and sanctions continue to affect the palladium trade [7]. - Demand: The EU's new emission standards will increase platinum demand in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although global passenger car sales are slightly down, the growth of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve platinum's long - term demand. The IEA's hydrogen outlook shows potential growth in PEM electrolyzer installations, providing potential support for platinum [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Price trends: The platinum - palladium market rose this week, with platinum showing stronger price elasticity due to supply - demand tightness. As of January 23, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures prices increased by 12.43% and 6.09% respectively [8][12]. - Net long positions: As of January 13, 2026, NYMEX platinum's net long positions decreased by 0.45% to 23,806 contracts, and palladium's net long positions decreased by 23.50% to - 2,890 contracts [17]. - Basis: The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures contracts weakened this week [18]. - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 0.24% to 665,888.20 ounces, and palladium inventory increased by 2.54% to 216,266.31 ounces [25]. - Price ratios: The ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold has significantly increased compared to early 2025 [26]. - Correlation: The positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index has rebounded recently [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - Trade: As of November 2025, platinum imports and exports decreased [36]. - Demand: The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts has weakened marginally, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is slowly declining [41][46]. - Supply: Due to geopolitical conflicts and power issues, the global supply of platinum and palladium has decreased [52]. - Price difference: The price difference between domestic and international platinum and palladium markets has become more stable [57]. 3.4 Macro and Options - The US dollar index weakened this week under the impact of macro events [61].