碳酸锂市场周报：节前备库提振需求，锂价或将有所支撑-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price showed a volatile upward trend this week, with a weekly increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of the macro - environment, the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the lithium ore quotation continued to strengthen, and smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The supply of lithium salt plants increased with the rise in lithium prices, but as the long holiday approached, some smelters might enter the maintenance period, and production might decrease. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stockpiling increased, and the spot market trading sentiment improved [7]. - The overall lithium carbonate fundamentals are expected to gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, and industrial inventories will continue to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a volatile upward trend on the weekly line, with a price increase of 24.16% and an amplitude of 27.29%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 181,520 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. The lithium ore price is strong, smelters have sufficient raw materials. Supply may decrease as some smelters enter maintenance before the holiday, while downstream pre - holiday stockpiling demand is rising [7]. - Viewpoint: Lightly - position short - term long positions at low prices, and control risks [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 181,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 35,320 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread was - 1,880 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11,540 yuan/ton [12]. - Spot Market: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 171,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 13,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was - 10,520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 22,320 yuan/ton [18]. 3.3 Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of January 23, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 1,935 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 US dollars/ton. The US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate was 6.9628, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [22]. - Lithium Mica: As of January 20, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 16,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,850 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 750 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Supply Side: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,933.47 tons (8.77%), and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, a month - on - month increase of 152.66 tons (20.11%), and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. The monthly output was 56,820 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,840 tons (5.26%), and a year - on - year increase of 50.08%. The monthly operating rate was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of January 23, 2026, the average price was 140,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of electrolyte was 233,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,100 tons (0.91%), and a year - on - year increase of 44.19% [36]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 52,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 269,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 440 tons (0.16%), and a year - on - year increase of 32.48%. The monthly operating rate was 60%, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a year - on - year decrease of 6% [39]. - Ternary Materials: As of December 2025, the monthly output of ternary materials was 60,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,090 tons (1.77%), and a year - on - year increase of 16.26%. The monthly operating rate was 50%, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811, 622, and 523 continued to strengthen [44]. - Lithium Manganate: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 10,030 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 180 tons (1.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.52%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 52,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [49]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of December 2025, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 15,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 280 tons (1.74%), and a year - on - year increase of 118.72%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [52]. - Application Side - New Energy Vehicles: As of December 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 7.01%. The monthly production was 1,718,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.62%; the monthly sales were 1,710,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2%. The cumulative export volume was 2.615 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 103.66% [55][59]. 3.5 Option Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium or discount of the synthetic underlying is - 0.41, presenting a reverse arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of at - the - money option contracts and fundamental conditions, it is recommended to short volatility by constructing a short straddle option strategy [64].