苹果市场周报-20260123

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures Contract 2605 declined with a weekly drop of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas saw a slight improvement in Spring Festival stocking, with an increase in origin shipment volume. However, snowfall in some production areas during the week slightly affected the shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas across the country was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week, and the inventory clearance speed accelerated. The futures price is likely to fluctuate and strengthen in the short term supported by stocking demand [4][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - by - Week Highlights - The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 dropped this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.06%. The late Fuji apple production areas' Spring Festival stocking improved slightly, and origin shipment increased. Snowfall in some areas affected shipment. As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons (down 218,800 tons from last week), and the inventory clearance accelerated. In the Shandong production area, the storage capacity ratio decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week); in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week). In the sales area market, the number of incoming trucks decreased, transit inventory piled up, customers were scarce, and sales were slow. The futures price may fluctuate and strengthen in the short term [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The price of Apple Futures Contract 2605 fell by about 0.06% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top twenty in apple futures was - 2913 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [9][16]. - Spot Market: As of January 23, 2026, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above bagged Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.40 yuan per catty [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - Industrial Chain Situation - Supply: As of January 21, 2026, the national main - production - area apple cold - storage inventory was 6.8278 billion tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from last week. The inventory clearance speed accelerated but was still lower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area decreased to 50.30% (down 0.87% from last week), and in the Shaanxi production area, it decreased to 52.76% (down 1.56% from last week) [24]. - Demand - As of January 23, the average daily number of incoming trucks in the major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) [28]. - As of January 16, 2026, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.52 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.20 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [32]. - As of January 16, 2026, the weekly average wholesale price of five types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.83 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram [36]. - In December 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.625% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. The export value was 162,842,207 US dollars [40]. - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented, but specific data not given in the text summary [41]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A graph of the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd. (603336) is provided, showing the historical price - earnings ratio from September 30, 2020, to September 30, 2024 [43][44].