红枣市场周报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [9][11]. - The current time has entered the traditional peak stocking period before the Spring Festival. However, downstream channels have a low willingness to make large - order purchases, and the terminal market generally maintains a low - inventory strategy of "buying and selling as needed", resulting in fragmented demand transmission. With only more than ten days left before the national logistics network shuts down, close attention should be paid to the stocking intensity in the last stage before the festival [9]. - The 2025/26 jujube production season is expected to see a decline in jujube output [40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side [9]. - As of January 22, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample jujube points this week was 14,068 tons, a decrease of 347 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.72% [9][36]. - The Hebei sales area continued to receive goods, and prices were stable but weak [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.85% [11]. - Top 20 positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 18,571 lots [12]. - Warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 3,298 [17]. - Futures price spread: As of this week, the price spread between the 2605 and 2609 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 240 yuan/ton [20]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was 460 yuan/ton [23]. - Purchase price in main production areas: As of January 23, 2026, the purchase price of general - quality jujubes in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [26]. - First - grade jujube spot price: As of January 23, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [27]. - Special - grade jujube spot price: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.26 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.44 yuan/kg [32]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: - As of January 22, 2026, the 36 - sample jujube inventory decreased by 2.41% month - on - month and increased by 32.72% year - on - year [36]. - The jujube output in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [40]. - Demand side: - In December 2025, China's jujube export volume was 5,071,577 kg, with an export value of 79,876,362 yuan and an average export price of 15,749.81 yuan/ton. The export volume increased by 43.36% month - on - month and decreased by 18.20% year - on - year. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export was 34,362,765 kg, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 3.58% [43]. - This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand had only a small amount of orders [48]. 3.4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week was presented, but no specific numerical summary was provided [49]. - Stock market: The price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni (002582) was shown, but no specific numerical analysis was provided [51][52].