贵金属市场周报-20260123

Group 1: Report Overview - The precious metals market continued its upward trend this week, with the Greenland incident boosting market risk aversion, and domestic and international gold and silver prices hitting new all - time highs [7]. - The overall bullish logic for precious metals remains intact in the medium - to - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips recommended, while short - term high - level correction risks should be noted [7]. Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current US economic data generally meets market expectations. Under the assumption of stable inflation and employment data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times in the second half of the year. With the Fed's restart of the balance - sheet expansion plan, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged in the context of loose liquidity and a gradual slowdown in economic data [7]. Group 4: Periodic and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued its strong upward trend due to macro - event shocks this week [8]. - As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2604 was reported at 24,965 yuan/kg, up 11.04% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2604 was reported at 1,115.64 yuan/g, up 8.07% for the week [12]. - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 22, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF holding was reported at 1,079.66 tons, a 0.51% increase; the SLV silver ETF holding was reported at 16,104 tons, a 0.90% decrease [13][17]. - As of January 13, 2025 (latest), the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver both increased significantly. The COMEX gold net position was reported at 251,238 contracts, a 10.40% increase; the COMEX silver net position was reported at 32,060 contracts, a 9.53% increase [18][22]. - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 22, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was reported at - 14.58 yuan/g; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was reported at - 430 yuan/kg, showing a week - on - week weakening [23][27]. - This week, the gold and silver inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to diverge. As of January 22, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was reported at 36,144,279.82 ounces, a 0.19% decrease; the SHFE gold inventory was reported at 100,053 kg, a 2.46% increase. The COMEX silver inventory was reported at 426,476,499 ounces, a 2.5% decrease; the SHFE silver inventory was reported at 626,843 kg, a 1.10% increase [28][30]. Group 5: Industrial Supply - Demand Situation Silver Industry - As of December 2025, the import volumes of silver and silver ore sand both increased significantly. China's silver import volume was reported at 334,742.41 kg, a 27.03% increase; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was reported at 239,325,381 kg, a 32.29% increase [32][36]. - Downstream: Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the production of integrated circuits continued to rise, and the year - on - year growth rate tended to be stable. As of December 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was reported at 4,810,000 units, and the year - on - year growth rate was reported at 12.9% [38][41]. Silver Supply - Demand - The silver supply - demand was in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was reported at 680.5 million ounces, a 4% increase; the demand for coins and net bars was reported at 190.9 million ounces, a 22% decrease; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was reported at 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was reported at 1,164.1 million ounces, a 3% decrease [43][45]. - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was mainly due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was reported at - 148.9 million ounces, a 26% decrease. The World Silver Institute predicted that in 2025, the global total silver supply would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces, the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% to about 1,120 million ounces, and the supply - demand gap was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a 53% decrease [50][52]. Gold Supply - Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continued to buy gold. In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [54][71]. Group 6: Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly under the impact of macro - events [58]. - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility increased significantly [63]. - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [67].