螺纹钢市场周报：关税扰动、供需双弱螺纹期价先抑后扬-20260123

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is likely to continue range-bound trading due to a combination of factors. Macroscopically, tariff disturbances have weakened, and there are expectations of loose monetary policies. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons. It is the off - consumption season, with apparent demand declining and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3165 yuan/ton [9]. - Given the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. It is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Summary - Market Review: As of January 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week). Rebar production increased to 199.55 tons (+9.25 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. Apparent demand declined to 185.52 tons (-4.82 tons week - on - week), but a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. Total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (+14.03 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.23 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [7]. - Market Outlook: Overseas, the US will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestically, the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. In terms of cost, iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and coking coal and coke still have winter storage expectations. Technically, the RB2605 contract continued range - bound trading, with technical support at 3100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. It was stronger than the RB2610 contract, with a spread of -46 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. - Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions: On January 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39487 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43193 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders in the rebar futures contract was 66833 lots, an increase of 38128 lots compared to the previous week [22]. - Spot Price: On January 23, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3321 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 23rd was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - Upstream Market: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, while port inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased [30][35][39]. - Supply Side: In December 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly rebar production increased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the electric arc furnace operating rate decreased. Rebar inventory increased [45][48][54]. - Downstream Demand: In 2025, real estate development investment, new housing construction area, and infrastructure investment all declined year - on - year [57]. 4. Options Market - Due to the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60].