铝类市场周报：供需尚稳预期支撑，铝类或将高位震荡-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals show stable supply and cautious demand. The aluminum price is expected to remain high due to macro - expectations. The suggestion is to trade the main contract of Shanghai aluminum with a light position in a volatile manner, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the fundamentals are characterized by excessive supply and stable demand. The main contract of alumina should be traded with a light position in a volatile manner, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are marked by sufficient supply and weak demand. However, due to cost support, the cast aluminum price will remain high and volatile. The main contract of cast aluminum should be traded with a light position in a volatile manner, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - In the options market, considering that the volatility of the aluminum price may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Electrolytic Aluminum: The raw material alumina is at a low level, and the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good. The production start - up remains high and stable, with a slight increase in operating capacity but limited increment. In the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, downstream aluminum product factories mainly replenish stocks at low prices and make rigid purchases. The spot market trading is average, and industrial inventory accumulates [4]. - Alumina: The impact of the traditional rainy season in Guinea is gradually subsiding, and the raw material supply is increasing. The domestic alumina supply is still excessive and inventory accumulates. The demand from domestic electrolytic aluminum plants is rigid, and the spot market trading is average [5]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum price rebounds and runs at a high level, and the scrap aluminum price also rises. The supply of raw materials in the market increases, and the scrap aluminum trading is okay. The supply of domestic cast aluminum alloy is still excessive, and the demand is weak due to the off - season. The cast aluminum price remains high and volatile due to cost support [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Movement: Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.53%, closing at 24,290 yuan/ton; alumina fluctuated weakly with a weekly decrease of 0.98%, closing at 2,724 yuan/ton; cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.14%, closing at 22,995 yuan/ton [5][7]. - Ratio and Spread: As of January 23, 2026, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from January 16. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 295 yuan/ton, down 530 yuan/ton from January 16; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 77,050 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton from January 16 [11][20]. - Position and Inventory: As of January 23, 2026, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 724,867 lots, an increase of 26,993 lots (3.87%) from January 16. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 60,321 lots from January 16 [17]. - Spot Price: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 24,130 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton (0.54%) from January 16, with a spot discount of 170 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The average price of alumina in Henan and Shanxi regions was 2,650 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (0.19%) from January 16; the average price of alumina in Guiyang region was 2,650 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (0.19%) from January 16. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 24,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton (0.42%) from January 16 [24][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Inventory: As of January 22, 2026, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 509,275 tons, an increase of 19,275 tons (3.93%) from January 15; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 185,879 tons as of January 16, an increase of 42,051 tons (29.24%) from last week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 715,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons (2.44%) from January 15. As of January 23, 2026, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 141,152 tons, an increase of 402 tons (0.29%) from January 16; the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts totaled 482,475 tons, an increase of 35,900 tons (8.04%) from January 15 [31]. - Raw Material Import and Inventory: As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 25.177 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons month - on - month. In December 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 14.6734 million tons, a decrease of 2.85% month - on - month and 2.02% year - on - year. From January to December, the import of bauxite was 200.5319 million tons, an increase of 26.31% year - on - year [34]. - Scrap Aluminum: As of the latest data this week, the quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong region was 17,900 yuan/ton, the same as last week. In November 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,619.93 tons, an increase of 17.7% year - on - year; the export was 71.53 tons, a decrease of 1.7% year - on - year [38]. - Alumina: In December 2025, the alumina output was 8.0108 million tons, an increase of 6.7% year - on - year; from January to December, the cumulative output of alumina was 92.4456 million tons, an increase of 8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the alumina import was 227,800 tons, a decrease of 1.99% month - on - month and an increase of 1389.71% year - on - year; the export was 210,000 tons, an increase of 23.53% month - on - month and 10.53% year - on - year. From January to December, the cumulative import of alumina was 1.1978 million tons, a decrease of 15.64% year - on - year [41]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import was 189,200 tons, an increase of 17.22% year - on - year; from January to December, the cumulative import of electrolytic aluminum was 2.5376 million tons, an increase of 18.82% year - on - year; in December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum export was 37,600 tons, and from January to December, the cumulative export of electrolytic aluminum was 296,600 tons. The WBMS report showed that from January to November 2025, the global aluminum market had a supply surplus of 204,900 tons. In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.874 million tons, an increase of 3% year - on - year; from January to December, the cumulative output of electrolytic aluminum was 45.016 million tons, an increase of 2.4% year - on - year. In December 2025, the domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.594 million tons, an increase of 0.36% month - on - month and 1.66% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.362 million tons, an increase of 0.27% month - on - month and 0.58% year - on - year; the start - up rate was 98.31%, an increase of 0.1% from last month and a decrease of 1.05% from the same period last year [44][47]. - Aluminum Products: In December 2025, the output of aluminum products was 6.1356 million tons, the same as last year; from January to December, the cumulative output of aluminum products was 67.5039 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of aluminum products was 320,000 tons, an increase of 7.1% year - on - year; the export was 540,000 tons, an increase of 7.7% year - on - year. From January to December, the import of aluminum products was 3.92 million tons, an increase of 4.6% year - on - year; the export was 6.13 million tons, a decrease of 8% year - on - year [51]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: In December 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, the same as last month, an increase of 15.96% year - on - year. The output of recycled aluminum alloy was 684,000 tons, a decrease of 2,280 tons month - on - month and 2.53% year - on - year [54]. - Aluminum Alloy: In December 2025, the output of aluminum alloy was 1.825 million tons, an increase of 13.7% year - on - year; from January to December, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, an increase of 15.8% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import of aluminum alloy was 93,100 tons, a decrease of 11.81% year - on - year; the export was 25,500 tons, an increase of 20.03% year - on - year. From January to December, the import of aluminum alloy was 1.0084 million tons, a decrease of 16.82% year - on - year; the export was 284,700 tons, an increase of 17.5% year - on - year [57]. - Real Estate: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from last month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a decrease of 20.47% year - on - year; the housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a decrease of 23.9% year - on - year [60]. - Infrastructure and Automobile: From January to December 2024, the infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,272,229 units, a decrease of 6.2% year - on - year; the production volume was 3,295,965 units, a decrease of 2.09% year - on - year [63]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis In view of the possible convergence of the aluminum price volatility in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [67].