铁矿石市场周报：港口库存再创新高，铁矿期价重心下移-20260123

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, tariff disturbances are weakening, and there are expectations of a loose monetary policy. Industrially, iron ore shipments are decreasing, molten iron production is stagnant, port congestion volumes are declining, ports continue the trend of inventory accumulation, and spot resources are relatively abundant. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading on the I2605 contract in the range of 810 - 770 yuan, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on January 23, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 795 (-17) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+0) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 251,100 tons week - on - week. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 117,300 tons. From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron production increased by 90 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 207,830 tons. As of January 23, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons and a year - on - year increase of 18.9692 million tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.575 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.23 percentage points [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the center of gravity of the I2605 contract moved down. The price of the I2605 contract was weaker than that of the I2609 contract. On the 23rd, the price difference was 17.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 23, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,100, a week - on - week decrease of 400. On January 23, the net position of the top 20 in the iron ore futures contract was a net short position of 14,724, a decrease of 3,885 compared with the previous week [20]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On January 23, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 849 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 23rd, the basis was 54 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From January 12 to January 18, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251,100 tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 22.466 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359,800 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.977 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,300 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 26.597 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.607 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.429 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,300 tons [29]. 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 174.9653 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 207,830 tons; the daily average port congestion volume was 3.2052 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 77.7605 million tons, an increase of 193,840 tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 60.9071 million tons, a decrease of 78,430 tons; the trading ore inventory was 115.2784 million tons, an increase of 174,990 tons. The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 93.8882 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 126,600 tons; the current daily consumption of imported ore by the sample steel mills was 2.819 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 33.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.44 days [34]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of January 22, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in large and medium - sized domestic steel mills was 23 days, a week - on - week increase of 2 days. On January 22, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,761, a week - on - week increase of 194 [38]. 3.3.4 Import Volume and Capacity Utilization - According to customs statistics, in December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 9.107 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%; from January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines in China was 62.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.06%; the daily average output of fine powder was 396,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,600 tons; the inventory was 435,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,600 tons [42]. 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Production - In December 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 79.3449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6831 million tons. From January to December, the cumulative production was 1.0020771 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.0188 million tons. In November, the iron fine powder production of 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative production was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [45]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In the whole year of 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [49]. 3.4.2 Steel Imports and Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel export was 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel import was 6.059 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [49]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Production - On January 23, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.70 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.87 percentage points. On January 23, the daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 90 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons [52]. 3.5 Options Market - With stagnant molten iron production, continuous inventory accumulation at ports, and relatively abundant spot resources, the futures price may fluctuate weakly. It is suggested to consider buying out - of - the - money put options on the I2605 contract after a rebound [55].