白糖市场周报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased with a weekly decline of approximately 1.48%. The 12 - second - half sugar production in Brazil decreased year - on - year, and as the crushing season nears its end, the supply of squeezable sugarcane is decreasing, which is expected to provide some support for the raw sugar price. The domestic fundamentals are relatively flat. With the Spring Festival stocking nearly over and the continuous increase of goods at ports in sales areas, the spot price has been lowered under the background of a lackluster peak season, and the futures market may continue to decline due to the lack of spot support [5]. - Future factors to watch include domestic imports and demand [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - by - Week Summary - Market review: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.48% [5]. - Market outlook: In the second half of December 2025, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14.90% year - on - year, and the supply is expected to decrease in the future, supporting the raw sugar price. In China, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the spot price has been lowered, and the futures price may continue to decline [5]. - Future factors to watch: Domestic imports and demand [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Sugar Market - The price of the US Sugar March contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.20%. As of January 13, 2026, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 165,711 lots, an increase of 11,613 lots from the previous week. Long positions decreased by 3,058 lots to 143,494 lots, and short positions increased by 8,555 lots to 309,205 lots [12]. 3.2.2 International Raw Sugar Spot Price - This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.67 cents per pound, an increase of 0.05 cents per pound from last week [16]. 3.2.3 Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract decreased this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.48%. The 5 - 9 contract spread of Zhengzhou Sugar futures was - 15 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou Sugar basis was + 160 yuan/ton [19][29]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of January 23, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,340 yuan/ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,320 yuan/ton [35]. - This week, the estimated in - quota profit for Brazilian sugar was 1,308 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton. The estimated in - quota profit for Thai sugar was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week; the out - of - quota profit was 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [41]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - In December 2025, China's sugar imports were 580,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 316.67% and a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. From January to December 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 950% [50]. 3.3.2 Demand Side - In December 2025, China's monthly output of refined sugar was 3.5904 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The monthly output of soft drinks was 13.4214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [60]. 3.4 Options and Stock - Futures Correlation Market 3.4.1 Options Market - No specific analysis results are provided, only the implied volatility chart of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is mentioned [61]. 3.4.2 Stock Market - No specific analysis results are provided, only the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry is mentioned [66].