建信期货能源化工周报-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is in a weak supply - demand situation with continuous inventory accumulation expected in 2026. Attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7][8]. - For asphalt, demand lacks highlights, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of Venezuelan raw materials which may be the main support [31]. - PTA is expected to rise first and then fall with a downward - shifted price center, while ethylene glycol is expected to be under pressure for shock consolidation [56]. - The polyolefin market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to structural short - selling opportunities [74]. - Pulp maintains a wide - range shock trend with pressure on the upside and support on the downside [110]. - The soda ash market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and is likely to continue a weak operation in the long - term, with short - term shock operation expected [153]. 3. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Weather speculation has ended, and the market is in shock. Supply - demand is weak, and attention should be paid to selling points from geopolitical situations [7]. - Fundamental Changes: Three major institutions' January reports show a pessimistic outlook for 2026, with continuous inventory accumulation. US refinery data is also bearish [8]. Asphalt - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Crude oil supply - demand is weak, and Venezuelan situation drives the price up. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak [30]. - Fundamental Changes: Crude oil supply - demand is weak. Spot prices in some areas change slightly, and the average domestic price drops slightly. Supply and profit change, and demand is weak with inventory changes [32][33][34]. Polyester - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: PTA first falls and then rises, and is expected to rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol first suppresses and then rises, and is expected to be under pressure [55][56]. - Main Driving Forces: Downstream consumption demand weakens. PTA supply is stable, and the price may rise first and then fall. Ethylene glycol has a trend of inventory accumulation and is expected to be under pressure [57][58][60]. Polyolefins - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: Futures prices first fall and then rise. The market follows the cost - driven logic, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [73][74]. - Fundamental Changes: Polypropylene and polyethylene production increase. Production profits vary. Inventory shows a differentiated structure, and downstream start - up levels have different performances [75][79][84]. Pulp - Market Review and Outlook: The pulp contract price rises slightly, and the spot price is weak. It maintains a wide - range shock [109][110]. - Fundamental Changes: Pulp shipping volume, import volume, inventory, and downstream market have different changes [111][117][131]. Soda Ash - Market Review and Operation Suggestions: The futures price first falls and then rebounds, with a stable price center. Supply pressure is high, demand shrinks, and inventory decreases. It is expected to be in shock in the short - term and weak in the long - term [146][153]. - Soda Ash Market Situation: Supply is at a high level, inventory decreases but the core contradiction remains, spot prices are stable, and downstream demand has different impacts [154][164][173].