宏观贵金属周报-20260123

Report Information - Report Title: Macro Precious Metals Weekly Report - Date: January 23, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China achieved its economic growth target, but the real - estate market still faced heavy inventory pressure. China increased the intensity of monetary policy easing. Geopolitical events such as the Greenland Island issue and the situation in Cuba added uncertainties. In the precious metals market, long - term, medium - term, and short - term factors all supported the upward trend of precious metals prices, with different expectations for the price ranges of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in 2026 [4][13][23] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Environment Review 1.1 Economic Situation - China achieved its 2025 economic growth target. Real GDP grew 5% year - on - year, the same as in 2024. Nominal GDP slightly exceeded 140 trillion yuan, with a 4% year - on - year growth, the lowest since 2021. The GDP deflator shrank 0.96% year - on - year, a larger decline than in 2024. Final consumption, capital formation, and net exports had different impacts on GDP, with consumption's pulling effect increasing, investment's decreasing, and net exports' increasing. In Q4 2025, real GDP grew 4.5% year - on - year, and the GDP deflator continued to shrink [4] - Social consumption in China grew 3.7% year - on - year in 2025. Urban fixed - asset investment shrank 3.8% year - on - year, the first annual shrinkage since 1992. Real industrial output grew 5.9% year - on - year. The real - estate market showed signs of weak stabilization, with sales, completion, and new - start areas all shrinking, and inventory pressure remaining high although it started to ease [6][7] 1.2 Policy - In December 2025, China's social financing stock grew 8.3% year - on - year, M2 grew 8.5% year - on - year, and M1 grew 3.8% year - on - year, all with increased growth rates compared to December 2024. Since January 19, 2026, the central bank has lowered re - loan and re - discount rates, increased some re - loan quotas, and expanded the scope of policy support [10] - On January 16, the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the financial regulatory authority optimized personal consumption loan and equipment renewal loan fiscal subsidy policies. On January 17, the central bank and the financial regulatory authority adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans [12] 1.3 Geopolitics - The Greenland Island issue: Trump appointed a special envoy to Greenland, expressed the need for Greenland for national defense, and imposed tariffs on eight European countries. The EU considered counter - measures. Eventually, Trump cancelled the tariff measures after discussing with NATO Secretary - General Rutte, but the issue remained complex [13] - The situation in Cuba: The Trump 2.0 government was looking for cooperation with insiders in the Cuban government to overthrow the Cuban regime by the end of the year, believing that the Cuban economy was on the verge of collapse [14] 2. Precious Metals Market Analysis 2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index first rose and then fell in 2025. In 2026, although some factors may strengthen the US economic fundamentals, the dollar index is expected to continue to be weak, with support levels at 95 and 90. The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong in 2026, with pressure levels at 6.97 and 6.85. US Treasury yields in 2025 declined across the board, and in 2026, the yield curve is expected to continue to steepen, with short - term yields falling and medium - and long - term yields showing range - bound fluctuations [15][16][18] 2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - In the spot market, the holdings of global gold and silver ETFs have increased since 2025. As of January 22, 2026, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF were significantly higher than the 2024 lows. In CFTC positions, as of the week of January 13, 2026, non - commercial institutions adjusted their gold and silver futures and options positions, resulting in a decline in the gold fund net - long ratio and an increase in the silver fund net - long ratio [20][22] 2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic stimulus policies make gold prices strong. In the short - term, since November 27, 2025, multiple factors have pushed up the precious metals sector. In 2026, London gold is expected to reach $5300 - 5500 per ounce, London silver $105 - 115 per ounce, London platinum $2800 - 3000 per ounce, and London palladium $2000 - 2200 per ounce [23][25][27] 2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has fluctuated. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has weakened, the positive correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields has strengthened, the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has significantly decreased, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has increased [28][29]