异动点评：供需预期改善，乙二醇反弹冲高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 23rd, due to the improvement in ethylene glycol supply - demand expectations and a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, rising 5.99% [1] - The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol shows a near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near term, there is a large inventory build - up pressure, but in the second quarter, the supply - demand is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel [6] - Short - term ethylene glycol still has an upward expectation. It is not recommended to short. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Condition - On January 23rd, the ethylene glycol futures main contract EG2605 hit the daily limit, with a 5.99% increase, driven by improved supply - demand expectations and capital inflow into the chemical sector [1] 3.2 Driving Factors 3.2.1 Overseas Supply - Since January, multiple overseas ethylene glycol plants have undergone maintenance. Two plants of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan with a total capacity of 720,000 tons/year were shut down for maintenance in early January. A 450,000 - ton/year plant in Saudi Arabia has been shut down and is expected to restart from late February to early March. Other plants with capacities of 450,000 tons, 380,000 tons, and 700,000 tons in Saudi Arabia are also shut down. The import volume in February is expected to drop to around 600,000 tons, and port inventory build - up will be limited [2] 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - According to CCF statistics, multiple domestic large - scale ethylene glycol plants will be shut down for maintenance or switch production in the second quarter. For example, a 900,000 - ton/year plant in Lianyungang plans to shut down and switch production around mid - February, the 1,000,000 - ton/year plant of Shenghong will remain shut down until the third and fourth quarters of 2026, and the 1,800,000 - ton/year plant of Yulin Chemical will replace hydrogenation catalysts in March 2026 and shut down the whole plant for one month in the first half of the year. With the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants in the second quarter, the supply - demand balance can be effectively improved [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - In the short term (January - February), ethylene glycol still faces significant inventory build - up pressure due to limited domestic plant maintenance, new plant production, weak downstream demand, and slow import contraction [6] - In the long term (second quarter), the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve and enter the de - stocking channel due to domestic plant shutdowns and coal - based plant spring maintenance [6] - Operational suggestions: Do not short in the short term. Long - position traders can buy call options or sell out - of - the - money put options (strike price not higher than 3800). Also, pay attention to the EG5 - 9 positive spread opportunity [6]