建信期货有色金属周报-20260123

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro and capital factors. Short-term adjustments may be needed due to macro mood fluctuations and previous rapid price increases, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard. Nickel market is expected to have significant upward elasticity due to policy disturbances. Zinc prices may continue to show high-level oscillations, with limited continuous upward momentum [13][49][73] Summary by Metals Aluminum Market Review - This week, aluminum prices were strongly supported around 24,000 yuan. The overall market showed an external-strong and internal-weak pattern, with the import window closed. Alumina futures prices rebounded after a mid-week decline due to a mine accident in Guinea. Aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. High prices continued to suppress terminal demand, and inventory increased slightly compared to last week [8] Operation Suggestions - Although both domestic and overseas ore sectors were disturbed to some extent this week, ore prices remained weak. Alumina is expected to fluctuate widely at low levels under the pressure of an oversupply. The supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and aluminum processing showed a slight recovery. Considering the current situation, short-term price adjustments may be needed, but prices are likely to rise easily and fall hard [13] Fundamental Changes - Bauxite Market: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were weak. Some northern domestic mines reduced production due to weather and are gradually resuming work, while southern mines remained stable. Overseas, the bauxite market was quiet, and alumina plants had low purchasing willingness [14] - Alumina: Futures prices rebounded from a low level, but the oversupply situation remained unchanged. The weighted index of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals decreased slightly compared to last week, and the operating rate of domestic alumina plants decreased [18][19] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit level of the smelting industry remained high. The total industry cost decreased slightly, while the average profit increased [25] - Aluminum Ingot Import and Export: The import window remained closed. In December 2025, the net import of aluminum ingots increased [31] - Aluminum Processing: The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises increased slightly, but different sectors showed different trends. Some sectors were affected by environmental protection, weather, and other factors, while others were supported by orders from specific fields [34] - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly compared to last week, while aluminum rod inventory increased significantly [38][41] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices strengthened again this week, maintaining a high-level wide-range oscillation pattern. Spot trading remained cold, and the import window was closed [45] Operation Suggestions - The expected shortage of nickel ore supply supported miners to continuously raise prices. Nickel iron prices continued to rise, while nickel salt prices weakened. Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market to maintain significant upward elasticity [48][49] Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore Market: Prices in the Philippines and Indonesia increased significantly. The import volume of nickel ore in November 2025 decreased compared to the previous month but increased compared to the same period last year [50] - Nickel Iron Market: The production of nickel iron in China and Indonesia decreased in December 2025. The supply side continued to hold firm prices, and the demand side showed some activity but with differences between upstream and downstream [54] - Electrolytic Nickel Market: The production capacity of electrowon nickel was rapidly released. In December 2025, the monthly production of electrolytic nickel in China increased, and the import and export volumes also changed [61] - Nickel Sulfate Market: Nickel salt prices decreased slightly this week. The production of nickel sulfate in December 2025 decreased, and the industry's operating load remained at a certain level [65] - Stainless Steel Market: The inventory of the stainless steel market increased slightly, mainly due to the contradiction between rising futures prices and weak terminal demand [69] Zinc Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector showed differentiation and high-level adjustments. Zinc prices at high levels showed a callback, and then strengthened in the second half of the week. The import window was not fully opened, and the spot premium decreased slightly [70][71] Operation Suggestions - The zinc concentrate market remained tight. The supply of zinc ore was affected by seasonal and overseas factors, and the processing fee was expected to remain low. The demand side was weak, and zinc prices were likely to oscillate at high levels with limited upward momentum [72][73] Fundamental Changes - Supply Side: The supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the import processing fee decreased. The production of zinc ingots in January is expected to increase slightly compared to December [76][77] - Demand Side: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased slightly, but overall demand was weak due to high zinc prices and environmental protection measures [78][79] - Spot Market: Domestic zinc inventory decreased slightly, while LME zinc inventory increased. The cash-3M spread of LME zinc remained in contango [80]