股指、黄金周度报告-20260123

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, policy releases positive signals, but corporate earnings haven't improved significantly. Be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock indices. The US - EU trade tension eases, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is maintained. However, due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, beware of profit - taking pressure after the rapid rise of gold [38]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices will still be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end. The support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade situations. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. The US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, narrowing the space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates. In this case, gold may face a deep adjustment [38]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, achieving the annual development target. From January to December, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, industrial added value increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, indicating weak endogenous economic growth and insufficient demand as the main contradiction [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money supply M2 was 8.5% (previous value 8%), and M1 was 3.8% (previous value 4.9%). The growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 further widened [19]. - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 26985.57 billion yuan, reaching a new high. The central bank conducted 1181 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 229.5 billion yuan [21]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data - In the third quarter of the US, real GDP increased by 4.4% quarter - on - quarter, and the core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. It shows that the US economy is slowly recovering, but inflation remains high [24]. - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory slowed down, and COMEX gold inventory in New York decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [37]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendation - In 2025, China's economic recovery foundation is not solid. The government has strengthened counter - cyclical adjustment policies. Although there are positive policy signals, corporate earnings haven't improved significantly, and stock indices may fluctuate in the short term. The easing of US - EU trade tensions and the maintenance of the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a rebound in the US dollar index. Due to uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine and Iran situations, gold has risen rapidly and reached a new high [38].