油料周报-20260125

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean meal, the global soybean supply is abundant, and domestic oil mills' operating rates are rising. Although the soybean inventory remains high year - on - year, the soybean meal inventory is decreasing month - on - month. There is a short - term shock adjustment due to the game between the expectation of abundant supply and inventory reduction and demand support. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern may remain relatively loose after the South American soybeans are on the market [2]. - For rapeseed meal, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations, the supply will be abundant after March. With weak demand recovery, the price is under pressure of shock and decline [3]. - For soybean oil, the weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the Spring Festival stocking supports the spot. Overseas bio - diesel topics support the domestic market [38]. - For palm oil, the inventory in Malaysia in December reached a five - year peak, and the domestic port inventory is high. While domestic demand is improving, there is a policy game regarding bio - diesel demand [38]. - For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased significantly year - on - year, but the import of Australian rapeseed will ease the raw material shortage. The long - term supply is expected to be abundant [38]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal Supply - The global soybean supply is abundant, domestic oil mills' operating rates are rising, and the soybean inventory remains high year - on - year. However, due to extended port clearance and reduced arrivals before the Spring Festival, oil mills will face a shortage of raw materials before the Spring Festival [2]. Demand - The high pig inventory supports the rigid demand for soybean meal, and the pre - holiday stocking by feed enterprises drives the increase in提货 volume [2]. Market Situation - There is a short - term shock adjustment due to the game between the expectation of abundant supply and inventory reduction and demand support. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the growth of South American soybeans and the rhythm of domestic soybean arrivals [2]. Rapeseed Meal Supply - Coastal oil mills' rapeseed crushing has stopped, and the inventory is exhausted. The import profit of European rapeseed oil is in a larger inversion, and the Canadian rapeseed procurement policy has not been verified. The market is worried about the future supply pressure of Canadian rapeseed [7]. Demand - Affected by the off - season of aquaculture, feed enterprises' procurement is sluggish, forming a pattern of "tight spot and weak demand" [7]. Market Situation - Due to the global rapeseed harvest and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations, the supply will be abundant after March. With weak demand recovery, the price is under pressure of shock and decline [3]. Fats and Oils Soybean Oil - Supply: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, inventory is continuously decreasing, and the Spring Festival stocking supports the spot [38]. - Demand: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and the procurement of small - packaged oil is increasing, but the terminal stocking intensity is lower than expected, and the spot remains strong [38]. - External Linkage: Overseas bio - diesel topics have led to the strengthening of overseas soybean oil, which supports the domestic market [38]. Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysia's December inventory reached a five - year peak, and the domestic port inventory is high, with large supply pressure [38]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic catering consumption drives edible demand, and the bio - diesel blending policy supports industrial demand [38]. - Policy Game: Indonesia cancelled the B50 plan this year, which is unfavorable for bio - diesel demand. However, the United States may increase the demand for bio - diesel, leading to an expected improvement in global soybean oil demand [38]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: The domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the rapeseed oil output has decreased greatly. But the import of Australian rapeseed will ease the raw material shortage, and the long - term supply is expected to be abundant [38]. - Demand: Pre - holiday stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis declines, and the spot weakens [38]. - Policy Impact: The expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations is rising. Attention should be paid to overseas bio - diesel policies, which are uncertain [38].