贵金属日评-20260126

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: January 26, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to be strong under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to take a long - biased approach but control the position size, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4][6] - The geopolitical risk may significantly increase in 2026, and the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policy of global central banks will continue to boost the reserve diversification demand, strategic value of rare precious metals, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. The silver and platinum trends will be stronger than that of gold, but the price volatility will also be significantly amplified [6] Group 4: Content Summary by Directory 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Short - term Market - Although the Greenland Island incident has cooled down, the media reported that the US is planning to take action against Cuba and Iran. The weakening of the US dollar index boosts the pricing currency factor of precious metals. Goldman Sachs has raised the 2026 gold target price to $5,400 per ounce. After a short - term decline, the precious metals sector has collectively soared again, with London gold approaching the $5,000 per ounce mark [4] - The adjustment risk accumulated inside precious metals was fully released in the callback at the end of December 2025 [4] Medium - term Market - Trump 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which means that geopolitical risks may significantly increase [6] - The silver and platinum trends will be stronger than that of gold due to the improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. However, the large influx of investment funds also means that the price volatility of precious metals will be significantly amplified [6] - The industrial demand for silver is significantly boosted in the global green energy transition due to its excellent electrical conductivity. The EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban under economic pressure means an improvement in the expected industrial demand for platinum and palladium. The significant and continuous rise in the gold price boosts the physical demand for silver, platinum, and palladium through jewelry substitution demand [6] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12] 3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump said he had reached an agreement with NATO to ensure full and permanent access to Greenland, but details are unclear. Denmark insists on its sovereignty over Greenland, and the EU's foreign policy chief said US - EU relations have been "severely damaged" [18] - Nordic large - scale investment institutions are increasingly vigilant about the risks of holding US assets due to geopolitical tensions, indicating an expanding trend of capital transfer from the world's largest financial market [18] - US consumer spending increased steadily in November and October, which may keep the economy growing strongly for the third consecutive quarter, but there is no sign of a strong labor market [18]