农产品早报-20260126

Group 1: Corn and Starch - The price of corn in ports first declined and then rose this week, remaining at last week's level. In the short term, due to the strong price - holding and reluctance to sell in the production areas, limited supply increase, low inventory in the channels, and downstream stocking expectations, corn prices are expected to remain strong. In the long term, attention should be paid to structural changes, import policies, and domestic reserve auction policies [2]. - The deep - processing industry of starch is stable, with a slight increase in the startup rate and faster inventory reduction due to seasonal stocking. In the short term, the festival stocking expectation and inventory reduction support the enterprise's strong price quotes. In the long term, the key factor for the price trend is the change in downstream consumption rhythm [3]. Group 2: Sugar - In the international sugar market, for the 25/26 sugar - making season, the northern hemisphere's main producing countries are expected to increase production in the long - term due to stable or slightly increased planting areas and good weather conditions. In the domestic market, in the short term, the pressure of raw sugar supply decreases, and the futures price can refer to the domestic sugar spot price. In the long term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [4]. Group 3: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - The low initial inventory offsets most of the increase in cotton production. Considering the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term investment [4]. Group 4: Eggs - The recent Spring Festival stocking has pushed up the spot price of eggs, and the pace of chicken culling has slowed down. The sales were fast in the first half of the week and then slowed down as the terminal was less willing to accept high prices. The actual demand and chicken culling data should be monitored. If the spot price drops and stimulates farmers to cull old chickens, it will be beneficial to the egg price in the second quarter; otherwise, the second - quarter contract will face high pressure [5]. Group 5: Apples - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production areas is still light. Traders are less active in purchasing from fruit farmers, mainly packaging pre - ordered and self - stored goods. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium and low - quality apples have declined. As of January 22, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 48.01%, 2.11 percentage points lower than last year. The cold - storage inventory ratio decreased by 1.77 percentage points this week, and the inventory removal rate is 14.06%. During the Spring Festival stocking period, the cold - storage shipment volume is increasing [9]. Group 6: Pigs - The spot price of pigs was strong first and then weak on the weekend. Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, but it is difficult to maintain high prices. The overall enthusiasm of retail farmers for slaughter is average. With the approaching of Laba Festival, the demand in the north is supported. There is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival, and there may still be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. The medium - term pressure remains, and there is support for a long - term inflection point. The futures market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and continuous attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [9].