芳烃橡胶早报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For PTA, although it has turned to weekly inventory accumulation, the processing fee has further improved due to good far - month expectations and slow actual load - increase. However, the downstream polyester cash flow has deteriorated again, and the overall valuation is not low. The downward drive depends on the load - increase of mainstream suppliers' existing devices, and there is uncertainty without new production. Currently, the safety margin for narrowing the spread is not high [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based units are under maintenance, the coal - based operation is stable, the start - up rate has decreased slightly, the port inventory has decreased slightly at the beginning of the week with the decline in arrivals, and the forecast of arrivals during the week remains high. The far - month device conversion plan has been announced, the basis has strengthened month - on - month, and the coal - based efficiency has improved. In the short term, inventory accumulation continues, but the far - month inventory reduction amplitude increases, and the valuation needs to be repaired to some extent, but the elasticity is still limited during the production cycle, so it is regarded as a sideways trend [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, the near - end Hengyi High - tech has increased its load, the start - up rate has increased slightly to 97.8%, the production and sales have improved month - on - month, the inventory has decreased, and the spot processing fee has weakened month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end has decreased, the raw material inventory has increased, and the finished product inventory has decreased, and the efficiency has weakened month - on - month. In the future, the seasonality of the downstream of staple fiber is expected to continue to weaken. With limited inventory pressure, the start - up rate will remain high. It has a medium - low valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [1]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PTA - Price and Index Changes: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the price of crude oil changed from 6690 to 6795, PX CFR changed from 879 to 923, PTA internal - market spot price changed from 4970 to 5285, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis was 2605(-79). The PTA device: Yisheng New Materials with 3.6 million tons and Ineos with 1.25 million tons were under maintenance [1]. - Market Situation: The near - end TA device operated stably, the start - up rate remained the same month - on - month, the polyester load continued to decline, the inventory continued to accumulate, the basis weakened slightly, and the spot processing fee increased; the domestic PX was under maintenance and the load decreased, the overseas load continued to increase, the PXN spread widened month - on - month, the disproportionation efficiency improved, and the isomerization efficiency remained high. The US - Asia aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak [1]. MEG - Price and Index Changes: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the price of MEG external - market changed from 710 to 705, the price of MEG internal - market changed from 3637 to 3798, etc. The MEG spot trading basis was around 05(-116). The MEG device: Chengdu Petrochemical with 360,000 tons was under maintenance [1]. - Market Situation: The near - end domestic oil - based units were under maintenance, the coal - based operation was stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, the port inventory decreased slightly at the beginning of the week with the decline in arrivals, the forecast of arrivals during the week remained high, the far - month device conversion plan was announced, the basis strengthened month - on - month, and the coal - based efficiency improved [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Index Changes: As of January 23, 2026, the spot price was around 6663, and the market basis was around 03 - 170. The start - up rate increased slightly to 97.8% [1]. - Market Situation: The near - end Hengyi High - tech increased its load, the production and sales improved month - on - month, the inventory decreased, and the spot processing fee weakened month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end decreased, the raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased, and the efficiency weakened month - on - month [1]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price and Index Changes: From January 1 to 23, 2026, the price of US - dollar Thai mixed rubber changed from 1880 to 1940, the price of Shanghai full - latex changed from 15245 to 16315, etc. The daily change of some prices was significant, such as the US - dollar Thai mixed rubber increased by 50, and the Shanghai full - latex increased by 300 [1]. Styrene and Related Products - Price and Index Changes: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 710, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) changed from 5645 to 5940, etc. The daily change of some products' prices was obvious, such as the price of pure benzene (CFR China) increased by 50 [1]. - Profit and Margin Changes: The production profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. also changed. For example, the domestic profit of ABS (0215A) changed from - 926 to - 926, and the domestic profit of EPS (East China ordinary) changed from 7550 to 7950 [1].