LPG早报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic LPG market rose significantly influenced by geopolitical factors and the international market. The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32). The prices of civil LPG showed a divergence, with prices in Shandong at 4460 (+20), in East China at 4372 (-151), and in South China at 4780 (-255). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after carbon four at 4350 (+10). The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots (-79). The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7). The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively. Freight rates dropped. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9). The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly. Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21%, and demand contracted. The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11%. The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week. Overall, the internal and external valuations are moderately high. Although the PDH operating rate has decreased, the fundamentals remain tight in the short term due to the cold wave in the United States and the peak combustion season. As the cold wave ends and Middle - East supply resumes, the negative feedback from poor PDH profits and the maintenance season in March will weaken the driving force. The internal monthly spread valuation is neutral, and the fundamentals support bull spreads, but attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Spread Data - LPG Prices: On January 23, 2026, the prices in South China, East China, and Shandong were 4780, 4372, and 4460 respectively, with daily changes of -35, -56, and -20 compared to the previous day [1] - Propane Prices: The CFR price of propane in South China was 614, and the CIF price in Japan was 584 on January 23, 2026 [1] - CP Forecast Contract Price: On January 23, 2026, it was 536, with a daily change of -4 [1] - Other Product Prices: The price of Shandong ether - after carbon four was 4350 (+10), and the price of Shandong alkylation oil was 7150 (unchanged) on January 23, 2026 [1] - Paper Import Profit and Basis: On January 23, 2026, the paper import profit was -127, and the main contract basis was 298, with daily changes of 45 and -96 respectively [1] - Monthly Spreads: The 03 basis was 96 (-83), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 64 (-16), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -261 (-32) [1] 3.2 Market and Fundamental Indicators - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts was 5898 lots, a decrease of 79 [1] - Price Relationships: The FEI monthly spread increased, while the MB and CP monthly spreads slightly decreased. The oil - gas price ratio declined slightly. FEI strengthened compared to CP and MB, and MB - CP also strengthened. The internal and external PG - FEI c1 was 55.1 (-18.7) [1] - Propane Discounts: The CIF discount for propane in East China, China, was 85 (+8), and the FOB discounts for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 36 (-1.75), 20 (-9), and 62.52 US dollars (+11.72) respectively [1] - Freight Rates: Freight rates dropped [1] - FEI - MOPJ Spread: The FEI - MOPJ spread was -18 (week - on - week +9) [1] - PDH Profits: The spot profit of PDH fluctuated, while the paper profit dropped significantly [1] - Inventory and Arrivals: Port inventory decreased by 1.53%, and vessel arrivals decreased by 13.21% [1] - Refinery Indicators: The refinery storage capacity utilization rate increased by 1.21 pct, and external sales increased by 2.11% [1] - PDH Operating Rate: The PDH operating rate was 62.25% (-10.82 pct), with Juzhengyuan Phase II under maintenance and Ruiheng out of operation due to a fault, expected to resume next week [1]