《有色》日报-20260126
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-26 03:04
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - Fundamental Data: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - Fundamental Data: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - Fundamental Data: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - Fundamental Data: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - Supply, Demand and Inventory: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - Fundamental Data: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - Spot Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - Fundamental Data: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - Fundamental Data: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - Spot Price and Basis: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - Fundamental Data: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]
《有色》日报-20260126 - Reportify