原油成品油早报-20260126

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran persisted. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but had not made a final decision on authorizing the strike. Israel is highly vigilant about the possibility of US intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that if attacked, it will strike back against Israel and the US. The Iranian president has shown a tendency towards reconciliation by expressing willingness to meet with protest groups. If the US launches a strike against Iran, oil prices are at risk of surging due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From January 19 - 23, 2026, WTI increased by 1.71, BRENT by 1.82, and DUBAI by 0.27. The BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by 0.09, and the WTI - BRENT spread decreased by 0.11. The DUBAI - BRT (EFS) increased by 0.35 [3]. - During the same period, SC decreased by 4.50, OMAN increased by 1.27, and the SC - BRT decreased by 2.38. Domestic gasoline remained unchanged, and the domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 102 [3]. - Japan naphtha - BRT decreased by 15.13, the上期所FU main contract increased by 51, and the上期所FU - BRT decreased by 5.60. The上期所BU decreased by 6, and the上期所BU - BRT decreased by 13.64. HH natural gas decreased by 1.03 [3]. 2. Daily News - The CPC Black Sea terminal, which handles about 90% of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports, has restored its transport capacity as one of its offshore mooring facilities has been put back into use. However, the 2nd terminal remains out of service, and no update on its resumption has been provided [3]. - Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated. The US is sending additional troops to the Middle East, and Iran's military has stated that it is ready to respond to any potential attacks [4]. - There are signs that Israel is still seeking to attack Iran, according to the Turkish Foreign Minister [4]. 3. Inventory - In the week ending January 16, US crude oil exports decreased by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels to 13.732 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.602 million barrels to 426 million barrels, a 0.85% increase [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.5% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 806,000 barrels to 414.5 million barrels, a 0.19% increase [4]. - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.447 million barrels per day, a decrease of 645,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4].