甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260126

Group 1: Methanol and Polyolefins - The price of动力煤期货 remains at 801, while the prices of江苏, South China, Lunan, Southwest, Hebei, and Northwest spot methanol show certain changes, with daily changes of 0, 25, 20, -10, 0, 0 respectively [1] - Due to the continued fermentation of the Iran conflict, MTO shows resistance. Xingxing stops production, Shenghong will stop production in February, and Luxi will stop production next week. Other companies also have plans to reduce production. It is expected to restart after the normal situation in Iran [1] - Currently, it is difficult for methanol to go up or down. The MTO profit caps the upper limit. Unless other downstream products increase in price, it is currently more suitable to be bearish or sell call options [1] Group 2: Plastics - The plastic market shows a pattern of a volatile futures market, stable spot prices, and weak basis. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period, and in East China it is -100, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous period [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745. The theoretical import price of LL is 63. The HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210 compared to the previous period [2] - Upstream coal chemical industries are destocking, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also destocking. Social inventories have increased this week. HD inventories are at a low level, LD inventories have increased, and LL inventories are slightly higher than normal [2] - From the supply side, the supply growth rate of standard products is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month. There are few maintenance plans in January, and the production of full - density products has returned. The overall PE supply growth rate for 05 is expected to be neutral, and the LL supply - demand balance sheet is still under relatively large pressure [2] Group 3: PP - The PP market has a stable futures market and a weak basis. The basis in East China is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period [6] - The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has slightly decreased month - on - month. The price difference between North China and East China is -70, an increase of 35 compared to the previous period, and the price difference between South China and East China is 100, a decrease of 30 compared to the previous period [6] - In terms of upstream profits, oil - based production remains stable. The comprehensive profit of PDH is -970, an increase of 230 compared to the previous period, and the PDH operating rate remains stable this week. The profits of downstream BOPP and plastic weaving have improved [6] - There are more temporary maintenance plans on the supply side, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Downstream companies have replenished inventory at low prices. Sinopec and PetroChina are destocking, coal chemical industries are increasing inventory, and social inventories are increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is neutral. According to the balance sheet, the supply pressure for 05 and subsequent periods is slightly higher, and PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation [6] Group 4: PVC - The PVC basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene - based PVC is 575, and that of calcium carbide - based PVC is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation [8] - The price of coal is 600 (no change compared to the previous period), and the price of semi - coke is 820 (no change compared to the previous period). The profit of semi - coke is poor, and the profit of calcium carbide is also poor. The ex - factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - purchased chlor - alkali is around -600. The price of ethylene and calcium carbide remains stable [8] - Upstream production remains stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous period. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based production is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3% compared to the previous period, and that of ethylene - based production is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous period. Downstream demand remains stable [8] - The upstream factory inventory is 30.9 (an increase of 0.4w compared to the previous period), the PVC social inventory is 111.4w (an increase of 5w compared to the previous period), the inventory in East China is 106 (an increase of 5w compared to the previous period), and the inventory in South China is 5.4 (no change compared to the previous period). The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and the export volume remains the same month - on - month [8] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, the seasonal production resumes. Attention should be paid to the downstream inventory replenishment situation. Overall, the export volume this year is relatively large. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the expected situation of PVC is still poor [8]