有色早报-20260126

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, expecting supply constraints and demand growth. For aluminum, overseas active restocking supports prices. Zinc has potential for a catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a policy - fundamentals game. Stainless steel follows nickel prices. Lead is expected to oscillate in a certain range, and short - term short - selling is recommended at high prices. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate may see a spot - futures resonance market [1][2][7] Summary by Metal Type Copper - Price Movement: Copper prices tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose sharply on Friday night. The US's ability to siphon inventory is waning, but global consumption is strong, and copper has strong demand support. In China, pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, but post - festival destocking may also be rapid [1] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import profit was - 91.50, and the LME inventory increased by 3,450 [1] Aluminum - Price Movement: Aluminum ingot prices increased, and the LME 0 - 3M spread returned to negative. Aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are low, but apparent demand has rebounded. Auto consumption in December was below expectations, but photovoltaic installation increased, and overseas restocking supports prices [2] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 370, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [2] Zinc - Price Movement: Zinc prices increased. Supply - side TC is declining, and production is expected to increase in January. Demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the export window was open in December. The market is optimistic about zinc's catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [5][7] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai zinc ingot prices increased by 310, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [5][6] Nickel - Price Movement: Nickel prices increased. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic inventory increased slightly. There is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals due to Indonesian policies [11][12] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 2,060.88, and the LME inventory decreased by 768 [11] Stainless Steel - Price Movement: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are stable. Inventory decreased slightly, and prices mainly follow nickel prices [13][14] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, 304 cold - rolled coil prices decreased by 100 [13][14] Lead - Price Movement: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600. Supply is increasing due to high profits, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [15][18] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,250 [15][18] Tin - Price Movement: Tin prices oscillated upward. Supply recovery in the first quarter is uncertain, and demand has different trends in different sectors. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward pressure in the second half of 2026 [21] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 17,252.19, and the LME inventory increased by 40 [21] Industrial Silicon - Price Movement: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. Prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [23] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 96 [23] Lithium Carbonate - Price Movement: Lithium carbonate prices increased. The market was driven by production - halt expectations, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. A spot - futures resonance market may occur [25] - Data Changes: From January 19 - 23, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 6,500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 730 [25]