集运早报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. Spot price decline suppresses the futures market, but as freight rates fall, the scale of post - Chinese New Year rush shipping may increase, potentially weakening the price decline slope in March. The current valuation of EC2604 is within a reasonable range with volatile fluctuations. It is recommended to focus on potential correction opportunities in the future, such as buying at low prices during the oversold period when the spot price bottoms out [3]. - Export tax - rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to operate with caution and mainly adopt a positive spread trading strategy. The current valuation of EC2610 is moderately high, and opportunities to short EC2610 should be watched [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Contract Information - Contract Prices and Changes: The closing prices and price changes of different EC contracts on 2026/1/26 are as follows: EC2602 closed at 1717.7 with a 0.59% increase; EC2604 at 1138.3 with a 0.05% increase; EC2606 at 1412.9 with a 0.99% increase; EC2608 at 1495.5 with a 0.19% decrease; EC2610 at 1093.0 with a 0.61% increase [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of different EC contracts on 2026/1/26 are as follows: EC2602 had a trading volume of 532 and an open interest of 4401 (a decrease of 280); EC2604 had a trading volume of 30781 and an open interest of 41149 (an increase of 379); EC2606 had a trading volume of 4476 and an open interest of 5791 (an increase of 908); EC2608 had a trading volume of 218 and an open interest of 1343 (a decrease of 10); EC2610 had a trading volume of 1528 and an open interest of 8370 (an increase of 52) [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The month - to - month spreads of different EC contracts and their changes are as follows: EC2502 - 2604 had a spread of 579.4 on the previous day, with a daily increase of 9.5 and a weekly decrease of 2.7; EC2504 - 2606 had a spread of - 274.6 on the previous day, with a daily decrease of 13.2 and a weekly decrease of 88.8 [2]. Spot Market Information - Spot Indexes: The SCHIS index (updated every Monday) was 1954.19 on 2026/1/19, a 0.11% decrease from the previous period; the SCHI index (updated every Friday) was 1565 dollars/TEU on 2026/1/23, a 4.83% decrease from the previous period [2]. - European Line Spot Quotes: In Week 5, the central price of European line spot quotes was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures market; in Week 6, the central price dropped to 2320 dollars, equivalent to 1625 points on the futures market [4]. Geopolitical News - On 1/26, Hamas stated that it had handed over the detained Israeli personnel and remains and urged Israel to fulfill its obligations; the Israeli Defense Forces spokesman said that the Israeli Defense Forces were attacking Hezbollah's military infrastructure in multiple areas of Lebanon [4].