原木期货日报-20260126

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for logs shows strong performance. In Jiangsu, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot logs are in short supply, and prices continue to rise. The 03 contract faces less inventory pressure due to low inventory and expected reduction of future shipping volume. However, the weak demand limits the upward adjustment space. Last week, the valuation of log futures was slightly repaired with a small rebound. Currently, the market sentiment is strong for consolidation, and in the short - term, it is advisable to participate in the range of 750 - 800 [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures contracts on January 23rd, compared with January 22nd: the price of log 2601 remained unchanged at 772.5; log 2603 rose 7.5 to 776.0 with a 0.98% increase; log 2605 rose 2.5 to 788.5 with a 0.32% increase; log 2607 fell 0.5 to 799.0 with a - 0.06% decrease. The主力合约基差 decreased by 7.5 to - 36.0 [2] - Spot prices of various log types at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 22nd. For example, Rizhao Port's 3.9A small - sized radiata pine was 680.0, and Taicang Port's 4A medium - sized radiata pine was 770 [2] - The outer - market quotes of radiata pine 4 - meter medium - grade A (CFR price) and spruce 11.8 - meter (CFR price) remained unchanged on January 23rd compared with January 16th [2] 3.2 Cost: Import Cost Estimation - On January 26th, compared with January 25th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.949, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 0.92 to 752.91 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply: Monthly - In December, compared with November, the port shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 14.8 to 204.0 million cubic meters with a 7.82% increase, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand increased by 6 to 55 with a 12.24% increase [2] 3.4 Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 12 to 257.00 million cubic meters with a - 4.46% decrease. In Shandong, it decreased by 4 to 192.00 million cubic meters with a - 2.04% decrease; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 7.4 to 41.08 million cubic meters with a - 15.18% decrease [2][3] 3.5 Demand (Weekly) - As of January 16th, compared with January 9th, the average daily log出库量 in China increased by 0.41 to 6.16 million cubic meters with a 7% increase. In Shandong, it increased by 0.45 to 3.24 million cubic meters with a 16% increase; in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 to 2.28 million cubic meters with a - 3% decrease [3] 3.6 Arrival Forecast - From January 19th to January 25th, 2026, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 11, the same as last week with a 0% week - on - week increase. The total arrival volume was about 350,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 19,000 cubic meters from last week with a - 5% week - on - week decrease [3]