宏观经济周报2026年第五周-20260126

Economic Overview - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week, ending a previous expansion trend, but remains close to the stable zone around 100, indicating a phase of consolidation after prior growth[1] - The consumption index fell into the contraction zone, reflecting a marginal cooling in post-holiday consumption, although the decline is limited and overall remains robust[1] - The investment index also decreased, with corporate investment entering a wait-and-see phase after prior expansion, maintaining a level around 100, indicating continued support for domestic demand[1] - The production index showed a slight recovery into the expansion zone, suggesting stabilization as industrial production activities return to normal post-holiday[1] Structural Insights - In 2025, China's GDP reached approximately 140.19 trillion RMB, growing by 5.0% year-on-year, demonstrating strong macroeconomic resilience amid complex external conditions[2] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors saw value-added growth of 9.2% and 9.4% respectively, significantly outpacing the overall manufacturing sector, indicating a shift towards new growth drivers[2] - There is a steady improvement in innovation capabilities and a structured push towards green transformation, with green electricity and green economy sectors thriving[2] - Business confidence is gradually improving, with enhanced operational expectations from enterprises and increased activity in service and new consumption sectors among residents[2]