广发期货《农产品》日报-20260126

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Oil and Fat Industry: The potential positive impact of the US biodiesel policy on CBOT soybean oil is countered by the approaching Chinese New Year, which reduces the likelihood of continuous long - position trading. The soybean oil basis may still decline in the short term. Malaysian palm oil may continue to strengthen after a short - term correction. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, with limited upside potential in the short term [1]. - Cotton Industry: US cotton is in a low - level oscillation. The high cotton consumption due to high - capacity downstream spinning mills in China, along with the expected adjustment of the 2026 planting area, provides strong support for Zhengzhou cotton. Attention should be paid to the support level around 14,500 [2]. - Sugar Industry: Internationally, raw sugar is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation between 14 - 15 cents. Domestically, sugar prices are likely to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the approaching end of Chinese New Year stocking and lack of upward drivers, but some support from prices below production cost and a positive commodity market atmosphere [3]. - Jujube Industry: With the market focusing on peak - season consumption, the spot price of jujubes is expected to rebound from the bottom, but the upward space is limited by hedging pressure [4]. - Apple Industry: As the Chinese New Year stocking period arrives, the market in some apple - producing areas is warming up. The futures price is expected to be slightly stronger due to the low good - fruit rate, low inventory, and some short - position exits [5]. - Corn and Corn Starch Industry: In the short term, the tight supply of corn and pre - festival stocking demand support price increases, but the continuous policy - driven corn release and limited high - price transmission restrict the upward space [7]. - Pig Industry: The spot price of pigs has strengthened, but the supply pressure is expected to increase after the snow - weather passes. The market is likely to maintain a bottom - range oscillation [10]. - Meal Industry: US soybeans are oscillating strongly. The domestic meal market is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space due to factors such as low first - quarter arrival expectations and high - level inventory decline [13]. - Egg Industry: The egg supply is stable, and the demand may weaken. As egg prices reach a high level, there is a risk of price correction if the terminal digestion ability is weak [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Oil and Fat Industry - Futures Prices: On January 23, 2026, soybean oil futures (Y2605) increased by 0.12%, palm oil futures (P2605) decreased by 0.38%, and rapeseed oil futures (OI2605) decreased by 0.12% [1]. - Spot Prices: The average price of soybean oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.35%, the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 0.22%, and the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.20% [1]. - Basis: The soybean oil basis decreased by 7.75%, the palm oil basis increased by 53.85%, and the rapeseed oil basis remained unchanged [1]. - Inventory: The soybean oil inventory in Chinese coastal crushing plants is at a high level since 2022, the palm oil inventory in Chinese ports is slowly decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing [1]. Cotton Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, cotton 2605 decreased by 0.24%, cotton 2609 decreased by 0.17%, and ICE US cotton decreased by 0.11% [2]. - Spot Prices: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton increased by 0.27%, and the CC Index: 3128B increased by 0.20% [2]. - Inventory and Consumption: The circular inventory decreased by 100%, the industrial inventory increased by 1.5%, the import volume increased by 49.5%, and the consumption of cotton by downstream spinning mills is high [2]. Sugar Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, sugar 2605 increased by 0.43%, sugar 2609 increased by 0.33%, and ICE raw sugar decreased by 1.54% [3]. - Spot Prices: The price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, and the price in Kunming increased by 0.19% [3]. - Industry Data: The cumulative sugar production in China decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. Jujube Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, jujube 2605 increased by 0.63%, jujube 2607 increased by 0.51%, and jujube 2609 increased by 0.44% [4]. - Spot Prices: The price of Cangzhou's top - grade jujubes increased by 0.11%, and the prices of first - grade and second - grade jujubes remained unchanged [4]. - Inventory: The number of jujube warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the number of effective forecasts increased by 6.68% [4]. Apple Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, apple 2605 increased by 0.48%, and apple 2610 increased by 0.63% [5]. - Spot Prices: The basis decreased by 3.57% [5]. - Inventory: The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 3.11% [5]. Corn and Corn Starch Industry - Corn: On January 26, 2026, corn 2603 increased by 0.22%, the basis decreased by 9.09%, and the north - south trade profit increased by 90.91% [7]. - Corn Starch: Corn starch 2603 increased by 0.23%, the basis decreased by 3.57%, and the starch - corn 03 spread increased by 0.36% [7]. Pig Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, the main pig contract increased by 5.31%, pig 2605 decreased by 0.38%, and pig 2603 decreased by 0.30% [10]. - Spot Prices: The prices in Henan, Shandong, and other regions showed different changes [10]. - Industry Data: The daily slaughter volume increased by 1.79%, and the self - breeding profit increased by 486.60% [10]. Meal Industry - Soybean Meal: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal remained unchanged, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.61%, and the basis increased by 5.45% [13]. - Rapeseed Meal: The price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal remained unchanged, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 0.67%, and the basis increased by 5.56% [13]. - Soybean: The price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean contract increased by 0.86%, and the basis decreased by 16.30% [13]. Egg Industry - Futures Prices: On January 26, 2026, egg 03 decreased by 1.58%, and egg 04 decreased by 1.15% [14]. - Spot Prices: The egg - producing area price increased by 2.87%, and the basis increased by 26.72% [14]. - Industry Data: The price of egg - laying chicks increased by 3.33%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.31%, and the egg - feed ratio increased by 17.36% [14].